Across Trinidad and Tobago, mostly sunny and partly cloudy skies are occurring, with hazy conditions persisting. These settled conditions are forecast throughout Thursday across much of T&T. Some isolated showers are possible, albeit a low chance, across or just offshore Southwestern Trinidad, as well as hilly areas. These showers will be brief, and light to moderate in nature.
A surface to low-level shearline is currently producing cloudy skies and isolated to scattered showers across parts of the Northern Windwards and Southern Leeward islands. This shearline is forecast to drift across Grenada, (initially Northern) Trinidad and Tobago overnight through Friday.
This will produce increased cloudy periods and some isolated shower activity tonight through Friday.
On Friday, a closed upper-level low pressure system across the Southeastern Caribbean is forecast to weaken trade winds and allow a plume of deeper, tropical moisture to lift across Barbados and the Southern Windwards. Some isolated heavy showers will be possible, particularly north of Trinidad, i.e. possibly across Tobago, including Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
Model guidance on rainfall accumulation show mostly welcome amounts of accumulation, but not enough to cause riverine flooding across the Southern Windwards, excluding Trinidad and Tobago.
For T&T, generally less than 5 millimeters of rainfall accumulation are possible across both islands. Isolated areas across Northern and Eastern Trinidad, as well as Tobago, may receive up to 10-15 millimeters.
For Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, similar totals are forecast, with isolated accumulations up to 20 millimeters.
Winds are forecast to be gentle, generally less than 30 KM/H.
Minimum low temperatures across Trinidad and Tobago, over the next 48 hours, are forecast to be between 23°C-24°C and likely lower across inland and mountainous areas.
Maximum high temperatures across both islands are forecast to be mild, between 30°C-32°C.
Seas are forecast to remain moderate in open waters. Waves in open waters are forecast to remain up to 1.5 meters. In sheltered areas, seas are forecast to remain smooth, below 1.0 meters.
Winds are forecast to be from the east, at 10 to 15 knots. By Sunday night into Monday, winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 knots, from the East. Seas will be up to 2.0 meters in open waters.
King tides are occurring, meaning nuisance flooding is possible in low-lying coastal areas such as Mosquito Creek during high tide periods.
Dust concentrations from the unhealthy levels of dust that moved across the Southern Caribbean early this week continue to decrease. Mild concentrations of dust remain across T&T, as well as much of the Southern Windwards.
The large plume of dust currently in the Central and Eastern Atlantic will generally move southwestward. Most of the dust associated with this plume will be deposited in the Atlantic Ocean or Eastern South America, with a mild increase in dust over the weekend. With the present concentrations across T&T, most won’t even notice the increase.
Air quality remains at moderate, generally. At times, air quality is reduced to unhealthy for sensitive people, particularly during morning and evening rush hours, as well as in the vicinity of bush fires.
At this air quality level, unusually sensitive groups should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.
Thankfully, long range dust models aren’t indicating any major intrusions of Saharan Dust over the next 5 days.