Forecast: Mostly Hot & Sunny Day, Chance of Isolated Showers.

Short Term Weather Forecast (Next 24 Hours)

Summary: As of 9:45AM Tuesday 23rd April 2019, mostly sunny skies are occurring across Trinidad and Tobago. After midday, through the early evening, isolated showers and cloudiness are possible, favoring Western Trinidad and hilly regions. Little rainfall accumulation forecast.

Mostly sunny skies are forecast across Trinidad and Tobago today. Daytime heating, light winds and sea breeze convergence across Western parts of Trinidad are forecast. These conditions may build cloudy skies across western parts of mainly Trinidad, as well as areas near hilly regions on both islands. There is a medium chance for light to moderate showers. Conditions are not favorable yet for heavy showers or thunderstorm development. An isolated shower or two are also possible across eastern parts of T&T, as shallow showers associated with a shearline move westward.

A mostly settled but humid evening and night is forecast, and moisture at all levels of the atmosphere begins to advect (move) from South America, across the Southern Windwards.

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Medium Range Weather Forecast (Next 4 Days)

Summary: Chances for thunderstorm or heavy shower activity, favoring mainly Trinidad are on the rise for Wednesday and Thursday. These showers and/or thunderstorms are to favor late morning through the afternoon hours. Across Tobago, isolated showers are forecast to interrupt partly cloudy skies.

Note, street flooding is possible in the event of a heavy shower/thunderstorm.

Drier conditions, with hazy skies due to the return of Saharan Dust, are forecast for T&T Friday into Saturday.

We may see our first thunderstorm(s) on Wednesday. As mentioned above, by tonight into Wednesday, low-level moisture is forecast to move across the Southern Windwards, including Trinidad and Tobago, from South America. On Wednesday, mid and even upper level conditions are forecast to become more moist. This is due to moisture on the south western periphery of the low level equatorial high is advected northward, from South America, over the area.

Daytime showers are forecast to favor Southern and Western Trinidad, as well as hilly areas. Day time heating, sea breeze convergence and light winds are forecast to be present due to a deep layered low pressure system in the North Atlantic, weakening the pressure gradient. With ample moisture present throughout lower, mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, an isolated heavy shower or possible thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, particularly on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

Note that even with possible thunderstorms in the forecast, drought-busting rainfall is not expected, with very little daily rainfall accumulation forecast, with the exception of parts of Southern and Eastern Trinidad, which may record 5-10 millimeters daily.

Due to our high flood vulnerability, short lived heavy showers can produce street and even flash flooding, which may occur on Wednesday and Thursday.

By late Friday, mid and upper level conditions are forecast to become noticeably drier. Combined with the surge of Saharan Dust on Friday, a mostly sunny and hazy Friday and weekend is forecast.

Note: Showers, rainy or wet days and thunderstorms are possible and do occur in the dry season, such as the severe thunderstorm on March 4th 2018, which produced flash floods across Northern and Central Trinidad. Similarly, dry spells also occur during the wet or rainy season. These seasons generally dictate the overall climate, i.e. generally drier or wetter conditions, but day-to-day weather can vary.

Across Trinidad and Tobago, winds are forecast to be up to 40 KM/H throughout the week. Gusty winds, though unlikely, are possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

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Temperatures

Minimum low temperatures across Trinidad and Tobago over the next week are forecast to range between 24°C-26°C, with temperatures at the upper end of the minimum low temperature range favoring Tobago. Low temperatures are likely to be lower across inland and mountainous areas. Last nights’ minimum temperatures were 23.8°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 24.9°C at Crown Point, Tobago.

Today, maximum high temperatures across T&T are forecast to be a hot 33°C at Piarco, Trinidad and a heat index of 37°C . Across Tobago, maximum high temperatures are forecast to be near 31°C with a heat index of 34°C. The heat index is an index that combines air temperature and relative humidity, generating a “feel’s like” temperature.

Maximum high temperatures may hover between 30-33°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 29-31°C at Crown Point, Tobago throughout the reminder of the week. Isolated showers, particularly between 11:00AM and 3:00PM may reduce maximum high temperatures.

Seas

Seas are forecast to remain slight to moderate in open waters through the week. Waves in open waters are forecast to near 1.5 meters, occasionally up to 2.0 meters particularly East of Trinidad and Tobago. In sheltered areas, seas are forecast to remain smooth, below 1.0 meters. Winds are forecast to be from the east through the next 5 days at 10-15 knots.

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Minimal Saharan Dust Forecast Through Thursday, Dust Plume Forecast to Arrive on Friday

Presently, dust concentrations remain at minimal levels across the Southern Caribbean. Across Trinidad and Tobago, air quality is at good levels. Most places across the Eastern Caribbean are presently experiencing good air quality. Areas in the immediate vicinity of bushfires may experience moderate air quality.

At moderate air quality levels, unusually sensitive groups should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

By late Thursday, into Friday, based on current information as of 9:45AM Tuesday 23rd April 2019, a plume of mild to moderate concentrations of Saharan Dust is forecast to arrive at Trinidad and Tobago shores. Air quality is forecast to be reduced.

More: Surge of Saharan Dust Forecast by End of Week

Air Quality Index For The Next 5 Days.

Throughout the week, i.e. Tuesday through midday Thursday, very minimal concentrations of Saharan Dust are forecast across Trinidad and Tobago. Air quality is generally forecast to remain at good levels. The exception will be in areas experiencing smokey conditions due to bush fires and blowing dust in dry areas. In these situations, air quality may be reduced to moderate levels.

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00Z April 22nd 2019 NASA GEOS-5 Dust Model showing a mild surge of Saharan Dust arriving across T&T shores beginning on 26th April 2019. Credit: Weatherbell
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