Forecast: Isolated Showers, Possible Thunderstorms To Interrupt Sunny Skies

3:10PM Update: Welcome showers are occurring across (mainly) Trinidad at this time. Much of the anticipated thunderstorms are occurring presently across the Gulf of Paria and Southwest of Trinidad.

3:10PM Update: Welcome showers are occurring across (mainly) Trinidad at this time. Much of the anticipated thunderstorms are occurring presently across the Gulf of Paria and Southwest of Trinidad.
3:10PM Update

As of 11:00AM Thursday 25th April 2019, settled conditions are occurring across Trinidad and Tobago. However, cumulus clouds are developing across parts of Southern and Western Trinidad. Isolated showers, possible thunderstorms may occur over the next 1-3 hours, favoring the aforementioned areas. Mostly settled conditions are forecast by nightfall, barring the odd isolated shower favoring Trinidad.

After a mostly settled morning and sunny skies across both islands, clouds are beginning to build across parts of Trinidad. Over the next several hours, atmospheric conditions are favorable for shower and thunderstorm development. Hence, chances for heavy showers and thunderstorms have increased slightly to medium, though impacts remain the same.

Thunderstorm & Heavy Shower Chances & Impacts for Trinidad and Tobago for Thursday 25th April 2019.

Daytime heating and sea breeze convergence across Western parts of Trinidad are forecast to be the trigger for shower development. Marginally favorable mid to upper level environment will be present as an upper level jet establishes itself over the Windward islands.

As of 8:00AM, weak shear, a moderately moist atmosphere and marginal instability are present across Trinidad and Tobago. Hence, conditions are somewhat favorable for moderate convective activity i.e. thunderstorms. In addition, upper level moisture remains ample, which was why persons across Trinidad and Tobago were able to see a 22° halo on Wednesday.

Some improvement is forecast by the evening, with generally settled conditions by nightfall, barring the odd, brief, isolated shower.

No significant rainfall is forecast. In fact, most models have since backed off on overall precipitation totals, indicating less than 5 millimeters of rainfall accumulation across Trinidad and Tobago, with isolated areas receiving and 10-15 millimeters where a thunderstorm or heavy shower may occur. Street flooding may accompany a heavy shower or thunderstorm, in addition to the very low chance of gusty winds.

Note: Showers, rainy or wet days and thunderstorms are possible and do occur in the dry season, such as the severe thunderstorm on March 4th 2018, which produced flash floods across Northern and Central Trinidad. Similarly, dry spells also occur during the wet or rainy season. These seasons generally dictate the overall climate, i.e. generally drier or wetter conditions, but day-to-day weather can vary.

Across Trinidad and Tobago, winds are forecast to be up to 40 KM/H. Gusty winds up to 50 KM/H, are possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms and heavy showers.

Temperatures

Last nights’ minimum temperatures were warm, 25.9°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 26.8°C at Crown Point, Tobago.

Today, maximum high temperatures across T&T are forecast to be near 33°C at Piarco, Trinidad and a heat index of 37°C . Across Tobago, maximum high temperatures are forecast to be near 31°C with a heat index of 33°C. The heat index is an index that combines air temperature and relative humidity, generating a “feel’s like” temperature.

Seas

Seas are forecast to remain slight to moderate in open waters through the next 5 days. Waves in open waters are forecast to near 1.5 meters, occasionally up to 2.0 meters particularly East of Trinidad and Tobago. In sheltered areas, seas are forecast to remain smooth, below 1.0 meters. Winds are forecast to be from the east through the next 5 days at 10-15 knots.

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