Forecast: Isolated Showers, Breezy But Hot Day Ahead

Weather Forecast (Next 24 Hours)

As of 7:45AM Wednesday 1st May 2019, clear skies are occurring across Trinidad while scattered light to moderate showers are occurring across Tobago. Isolated showers are forecast to affect Northern and Eastern Trinidad by the late morning through the afternoon as well as parts of Tobago. Mostly hot and sunny conditions forecast elsewhere, with the low chance of isolated showers favoring hilly areas and Western Trinidad by the late afternoon. A settled and clear night is ahead, with some brief isolated showers possible. Gusty winds up to 60 KM/H are possible as the day progresses, particularly in the vicinity of showers.

Throughout morning, mostly settled conditions occurred across Trinidad. Tobago on the other had has been experiencing some much welcome light to moderate showers. Partly cloudy skies are forecast to occur by late morning, and progress through the afternoon and evening. As the day progresses, a few brisk isolated showers are forecast across Northern, Eastern and Central Trinidad due to low-level cloud patches traversing the region.

Upper level conditions are conducive for some upper level enhancement of showers, a few isolated heavy pockets may occur across parts of Eastern Trinidad and Tobago, and accompanied by gusty winds.

Generally moderate to fresh breeze is forecast (20-49 KM/H) for Wednesday, mainly from the east. However, wind gusts in the range of high wind are possible (50-61 KM/H) across Trinidad and Tobago as the day progresses and the pressure gradient of the dominating high pressure system tightens.

Beauford Wind Scale Land Impacts
Beauford Wind Scale Land Impacts

With wind gusts up to 60 KM/H, whole trees are expected to be in motion and there may be some inconvenience when walking against the wind gusts. Light outdoor objects may topple or become airborne such as garbage cans, loose galvanize or construction material and other outdoor furniture. Tents may jump.

High Wind Precautions
High Wind Precautions
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Temperatures

Last night’s minimum temperatures were 24°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 26°C at Crown Point, Tobago. Minimum low temperatures across Trinidad and Tobago tomorrow are forecast to range between 24°C-26°C, with temperatures at the upper end of the minimum low temperature range favoring Tobago. Low temperatures are likely to be lower across inland and mountainous areas.

Today, maximum high temperatures across T&T are forecast to be near a hot 33°C at Piarco, Trinidad and a heat index of 37°C . Across Tobago, maximum high temperatures are forecast to be a warm 31°C with a heat index of 34°C. The heat index is an index that combines air temperature and relative humidity, generating a “feel’s like” temperature.

Seas

Seas are forecast to remain moderate in open waters through the week. Waves in open waters are forecast to remain up to 2.0 meters particularly East of Trinidad and Tobago over the next 24 hours, occasionally above 2.0 meters overnight into Thursday. In sheltered areas, seas are forecast to remain smooth, below 1.0 meters. Winds will be from the east through the next 5 days at 15-20 knots from the east.

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Mild Saharan Dust Lingering Through The Week, Another Plume Forecast to Arrive This Weekend

Presently, dust concentrations remain at minimal levels across the Southern Caribbean. Across Trinidad and Tobago, air quality is at good to moderate levels. Most places across the Eastern Caribbean are presently experiencing good air quality with the exception of islands south of St. Lucia, which are experiencing good to moderate air quality. Areas in the immediate vicinity of bush fires may experience moderate air quality.

At moderate air quality levels, unusually sensitive groups should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

On Friday evening, into Saturday, a mild to moderate plume of Saharan Dust is forecast to arrive across Trinidad, Tobago and the remainder of the Southern Windwards. It is important to note that as of present (7:00PM Tuesday 30th April 2019), this initial plume of dust is not forecast to be as severe as the unhealthy air quality experienced during the March 2019 dust event. Air quality is forecast to be reduced to moderate levels, and at times, unhealthy for sensitive groups.

5 Day Air Quality Index Across Trinidad and Tobago
5 Day Air Quality Index Across Trinidad and Tobago
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 00Z April 30th 2019 NASA GEOS-5 Dust Model showing a "firehose" of Saharan Dust aimed at the Lesser Antilles, beginning this weekend. Increased concentrations and degraded air quality forecast. Credit: Weatherbell
00Z April 30th 2019 NASA GEOS-5 Dust Model showing a “firehose” of Saharan Dust aimed at the Lesser Antilles, beginning this weekend. Increased concentrations and degraded air quality forecast. Credit: Weatherbell

Long range modelling indicate that fluctuating concentrations of Saharan Dust is forecast to persist across Trinidad and Tobago, as well as the remainder of the Southern Windwards through the first half of May.

Related: Saharan Dust

With dry conditions persisting, bush fires will be on the rise. In the presence of even mild Saharan Dust, air quality can quickly degrade to moderate and even unhealthy for sensitive groups. Sensitive groups such as persons with respiratory ailments, children, the elderly and cardiopulmonary disease should take the necessary precautions.

Saharan Dust Precautions
Saharan Dust Precautions
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