Forecast: Initially Sunny Skies, Then Afternoon Showers

Weather Forecast

The surface to low-level high pressure system, in the Eastern Atlantic, is still dominating and will continue to dominate conditions across the Eastern Caribbean throughout the week. Surface to low-level convergence, on the southwestern periphery of the ridge (high pressure), will aid in the development of occasional cloudiness. There is a mild surge in low-level moisture, predominantly across Trinidad, fueling showers.

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By midday, and continuing through the remainder of the week, low-level cloud patches is forecast to traverse the region bringing the occasional cloudiness and isolated to scattered, brief showers. These showers will interrupt mostly settled conditions across the Southern Windwards, including Trinidad and Tobago

Very little rainfall accumulations are forecast over the next several days, with up to 5 millimeter accumulations, daily, across both Trinidad and Tobago.

Winds are forecast to be gentle, generally less than 30 KM/H, with gusts up to 50 KM/H at times.

Temperatures

Minimum low temperatures across Trinidad throughout the remainder of the week are forecast to range between 22°C-23°C. Low temperatures are likely to be lower across inland and mountainous areas. Across Tobago, on the other hand, low temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer, at 24°C-25°C. Last nights minimum temperatures were 23°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 24°C at Crown Point, Tobago.

Today, maximum high temperatures across Trinidad are forecast to be warm, but with expected cloud cover when maximum high temperatures occur, temperatures may remain below 32°C. Across Tobago, maximum high temperatures are forecast to near 30°C.

The maximum high heat index, or “feel’s like” temperature is forecast to generally remain near a hot 36°C during the early to mid-afternoons of Trinidad and 33°C in Tobago.

Seas

Seas are forecast to remain moderate in open waters through the week. Waves in open waters are forecast to remain up to 2.0 meters. In sheltered areas, seas are forecast to remain smooth, below 1.0 meters.

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Winds are forecast to be from the east, at 15 to 20 knots through Wednesday. By Friday, winds are forecast to decrease to 10-15 knots, from the East to Southeast. This will be due a developing surface to mid level low pressure to the north of Puerto Rico, weakening the dominating high pressure system’s influence over the region. It will also allow for the advection of moisture from the south, creating occasional cloudiness and a few showers are likely on Friday night.

No Saharan Dust In Sight

Dust concentrations are now at negligible levels across the Southern and Eastern Caribbean. In fact, most places across the Eastern Caribbean are presently experiencing good air quality. Air quality is forecast to remain at good levels for the remainder of the week. Areas in the immediate vicinity of bushfires may experience moderate air quality.

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EPA Air Quality Index Risk Levels

At moderate air quality levels, unusually sensitive groups should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Thankfully, long range dust models aren’t indicating any major intrusions of Saharan Dust over the next 10 days! Just beyond the 10 day mark, some mild concentrations may return to the Southern Windwards. However, because this is so far away, it is very low confidence. We’ll continue to monitor and update accordingly.

12Z March 27th 2019 NASA GEOS-5 Dust Model, no Saharan dust concentrations across the Eastern Caribbean over the next several days. A plume of dust may bring mild concentrations back to the Southern Windwards by next weekend. This is still more than 10 days away, so we’ll continue to monitor. CreditWeatherbell
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