Forecast: Hot, Dry, Breezy & Slightly Hazy Week Ahead.

Weather Forecast (Next 24 Hours)

As of 7:00PM Sunday 28th April 2019, mostly clear skies are occurring across Trinidad and Tobago. Some upper level clouds will move across T&T overnight. Mostly hot and sunny conditions forecast on Monday, with the low chance of isolated showers favoring hilly areas and Western Trinidad.

Throughout the night, mostly settled conditions are forecast across Trinidad and Tobago. Partly cloudy skies are forecast, due to upper level clouds moving across T&T from South America over the next 1-3 hours, persisting through the early morning.

On Monday, mostly sunny conditions are forecast across both islands. Partly cloudy skies are forecast by midday. There is the low chance of an isolated shower favoring hilly areas due to daytime heating effects, as well as Western Trinidad due to sea breeze convergence. A mostly settled evening is also forecast on Monday.

Generally gentle to fresh breezes (15-40 KM/H) winds are forecast for Monday, mainly from the east.

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Weather Forecast (Next 4 Days)

Generally, mostly sunny skies throughout the week are forecast to be interrupted by afternoon cloudiness and showers. Breezy conditions are likely by Wednesday through Friday.

A surface to low-level high pressure system in the Western Atlantic will progress into the Central Atlantic throughout the week. This ridge is forecast to generally suppress any shower activity across Trinidad and Tobago, though parts of the Northern Windwards and Leewards may see intermittent showers due to shearline activity.

Across Trinidad and Tobago, mostly sunny and slightly hazy skies are to persist throughout the week. Similarly to Monday, low chances of isolated showers are possible during the late morning through afternoon, due to sea breeze convergence and day time heating effects across hilly areas of T&T, as well as Western Trinidad, more so Southwestern Trinidad. A few low-level cloud patches may bring very brief isolated showers across parts of Eastern T&T, favoring Wednesday through Friday.

In part due to the high pressure system, the pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen across the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, bringing increasingly breezy conditions across the islands. Peak winds are generally forecast to be between 20-40 KM/H and gusts to 50 KM/H.

Meteorological drought conditions are forecast to intensify, with very little daily rainfall accumulation forecast. Trace accumulations, with very isolated areas receiving up to 5 millimeters of rainfall, favoring Eastern parts of the islands, are forecast daily through Friday.

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Temperatures

Minimum low temperatures across Trinidad and Tobago over the next week are forecast to range between 24°C-26°C, with temperatures at the upper end of the minimum low temperature range favoring Tobago. Low temperatures are likely to be lower across inland and mountainous areas. Tonight’s minimum temperatures are forecast to be near 24°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 25°C at Crown Point, Tobago.

Today, maximum high temperatures across T&T was a hot 32.9°C at Piarco, Trinidad and a heat index of 35°C . Across Tobago, maximum high temperatures was a warm 30.4°C with a heat index of 33°C. The heat index is an index that combines air temperature and relative humidity, generating a “feel’s like” temperature.

Maximum high temperatures may hover between 30-33°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 30-32°C at Crown Point, Tobago throughout the reminder of the week. Across Trinidad, particularly in urban areas, high temperatures may reach in the 34-35°C range this week!

Seas

Seas are forecast to remain moderate in open waters through the week. Waves in open waters are forecast to remain up to 1.5 meters particularly East of Trinidad and Tobago through Tuesday. In sheltered areas, seas are forecast to remain smooth, below 1.0 meters. Winds are forecast to be from the east through the next 2 days at 10-15 knots.

On Wednesday, winds are forecast to increase across the region, near 15-20 knots from the east. In turn, seas are forecast to build, becoming moderate with waves up to 2.0 meters on Wednesday and Friday, and occasionally in excess of 2.0 meters on Thursday. Sheltered areas are still forecast to remain smooth, below 1.0 meters.

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Mild Saharan Dust Lingering Through The Week, Another Plume Forecast to Arrive This Weekend

Presently, dust concentrations remain at minimal levels across the Southern Caribbean. Across Trinidad and Tobago, air quality is at good to moderate levels. Most places across the Eastern Caribbean are presently experiencing good air quality with few islands, such as Barbados, St. Vincent & the Grenadines and St. Lucia experiencing moderate air quality. Areas in the immediate vicinity of bushfires may experience moderate air quality.

At moderate air quality levels, unusually sensitive groups should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

By late Friday, based on current information as of 7:30PM Sunday 28th April 2019, a plume of mild to moderate concentrations of Saharan Dust is forecast to arrive at Trinidad and Tobago shores. Air quality is forecast to be reduced.

5 Day Air Quality Index Across Trinidad and Tobago
5 Day Air Quality Index Across Trinidad and Tobago

Throughout the week, i.e. Monday through Friday, minimal to mild concentrations of Saharan Dust are forecast across Trinidad and Tobago. Air quality is generally forecast to remain at good to moderate levels. The exception will be in areas experiencing smokey conditions due to bush fires and blowing dust in dry areas. In these situations, air quality may be further reduced to moderate levels.

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 00Z April 28th 2019 NASA GEOS-5 Dust Model showing a surge of Saharan Dust arriving across T&T shores beginning on May 3rd 2019. Credit: Weatherbell
00Z April 28th 2019 NASA GEOS-5 Dust Model showing a surge of Saharan Dust arriving across T&T shores beginning on May 3rd 2019. Credit: Weatherbell
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