Forecast: Few Isolated Showers, Mostly Sunny Day Ahead.

Weather Forecast

As of 8:00AM Tuesday 9th April 2019, mostly sunny skies are occurring across the vast majority of Trinidad and Tobago. Very isolated showers, associated with low-level clouds moving in from the Atlantic, are occurring mainly across Eastern parts of Trinidad.

Mostly sunny skies are forecast throughout today, across both islands. Low-level cloud patches are forecast to continue moving into the area, bringing some isolated showers, albeit brief, with associated cloudy periods. In addition, upper level cirrus clouds from South America are forecast to continue moving across Trinidad and Tobago throughout the day.

Mostly settled conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours with a clear night ahead.

These conditions are to remain in place for the remainder of the week, as a surface to mid-level high pressure system remains dominant across the Eastern Caribbean. However, weak surface to low level perturbations originating from confluence along the southern and south-western periphery of the Atlantic high pressure, will continue to traverse the region, triggering occasional cloudiness with brief showers.

While upper level dynamics are favorable to support shower development, moisture is lacking and remains capped to low-levels of the atmosphere. Hence, any shower development will be shallow and brief, generally remaining light to moderate.

Due to a tightened pressure gradient, breezy conditions are to persist across the region. Across Trinidad and Tobago, winds are forecast to be up to 50 KM/H.

Temperatures

Minimum low temperatures across Trinidad and Tobago over the next 3 days are forecast to range between 22°C-24°C, with temperatures at the upper end of the minimum low temperature range favoring Tobago. Low temperatures are likely to be lower across inland and mountainous areas. Last nights’ minimum temperatures were 23°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 24°C at Crown Point, Tobago.

Maximum high temperatures across T&T today, Monday, are forecast to be warm, near 32°C at Piarco, Trinidad and a heat index of 35°C . Across Tobago, maximum high temperatures are forecast to near 31°C with a heat index of 33°C. The heat index is an index that combines air temperature and relative humidity, generating a “feel’s like” temperature.

Seas

Seas are forecast to remain moderate in open waters through the week. Waves in open waters are forecast to remain up to 2.0 meters particularly East of Trinidad and Tobago. In sheltered areas, seas are forecast to remain smooth, below 1.0 meters. Winds are forecast to be from the east at 10-15 knots.

On Thursday, these winds are to slightly increase to 15-20 knots, with a southeast component, mainly on Thursday, but becoming mostly east on Friday.

Saharan Dust To Return by Beginning of Next Week

Dust concentrations remain at negligible levels across the Southern and Eastern Caribbean. In fact, most places across the Eastern Caribbean are presently experiencing good air quality. Air quality is forecast to remain at good levels for the next 5 days. Areas in the immediate vicinity of bushfires may experience moderate air quality.

EPA Air Quality Index Risk Levels

At moderate air quality levels, unusually sensitive groups should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Long range dust models aren’t indicating any major intrusions of Saharan Dust over the next 5 days. However, over the longer range, models are indicating the return of Saharan dust by late Saturday into Sunday (13th-14th. It is too soon to forecast air quality levels. However, major dust models continue to indicate that concentrations are forecast to be mild to moderate.

00Z April 9th 2019 NASA GEOS-5 Dust Model, no Saharan dust concentrations across the Eastern Caribbean over the next several days. Credit: Weatherbell

Based on current information (4:00PM Thursday 11th April 2019), much of the dust is forecast to be deposited across the Atlantic Ocean, with little to mild concentrations moving across the Southern Windwards, including Trinidad and Tobago. This is not forecast to be as severe as the dust event during mid-March 2019. In addition, based on latest information, this mild concentration of dust is forecast to begin affecting T&T by Friday night at the earliest, with peak concentrations on Sunday 14th April 2019.

Conversely, the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service has indicated that “moderate to thick concentrations of Saharan dust are expected to affect Trinidad and Tobago and the Lesser Antilles from late Friday (12th) into the weekend” in a post made on their social media platforms at 12:22PM Monday 8th April 2019.

Saharan Dust Event expected over the weekend:TTMS is currently monitoring another Saharan Dust plume which is making…

Posted by Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service on Monday, April 8, 2019

Regardless, with dry conditions forecast for the majority of the week ahead, bush fires will be on the rise. In the presence of even mild Saharan Dust, air quality can quickly degrade to moderate and even unhealthy for sensitive groups. Sensitive groups such as persons with respiratory ailments, children, the elderly and cardiopulmonary disease should take the necessary precautions.

Saharan Dust Precautions
Saharan Dust Precautions
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