Forecast: Afternoon Sunshine, Isolated Showers Today, Additional Showers Forecast Through Weekend

Weather Forecast (Next 24 Hours)

As of 11:00AM Thursday 18th April 2019, partly cloudy to cloudy skies are occurring across much of Trinidad, while sunny to partly cloudy skies are occurring across Tobago. It has been a particularly wet period over the last 24 hours across Tobago, with 27.4 millimeters of rainfall between 2:00AM Tuesday and 2:00AM Wednesday at Crown Point. Isolated showers have been affecting parts of Southern Trinidad and Northern Trinidad.

Skies are forecast to continue clearing as the present low-level trough move out of the region. However, with increased low-level moisture, daytime heating may trigger some shallow light to moderate showers, favoring coastal areas.

Upper level dynamics are not favorable to support heavy shower development over the next 24 hours, mid- to upper-level moisture is lacking and remains capped to low-levels of the atmosphere. Hence, any shower development will be shallow, generally remaining light to moderate.

Overnight tonight, a low-level shearline is forecast to drift closer to Trinidad and Tobago, generating some cloudiness and the odd isolated shower, favoring Tobago and Northern Trinidad.

Weather Forecast (Next 3 Days)

On Friday, another low-level trough is forecast to take the place of the shearline. This feature is forecast to bring intermittent cloudiness and isolated showers to Trinidad and Tobago. An increase in low-level wind is also forecast on Friday, with breezy conditions returning across T&T.

On Saturday, the low-level trough is forecast to remain across Trinidad and Tobago. Marginal instability in the mid to upper levels and the presence of an upper level Jet stream could aid in the enhancement of activity at this time. Cloudy skies with some showers and periods of rain are forecast with possible gusty winds. Isolated heavy showers are possible, but conditions are still not favorable for thunderstorms.

On Sunday, the interaction between the persisting the low-level trough and a developing low-level shearline is forecast to maintain some cloudiness and scattered showers during the day. This activity is forecast to diminish as the day progresses.

Generally, a relatively rainy next couple of days are ahead, which is forecast to bring some marginal drought relief. Daily rainfall accumulations are forecast to be up to 10 millimeters, mainly across Eastern and Northern Trinidad and 5 millimeters elsewhere.

Note: Showers, rainy or wet days and thunderstorms are possible and do occur in the dry season, such as the severe thunderstorm on March 4th 2018, which produced flash floods across Northern and Central Trinidad. Similarly, dry spells also occur during the wet or rainy season. These seasons generally dictate the overall climate, i.e. generally drier or wetter conditions, but day-to-day weather can vary.

Across Trinidad and Tobago, winds are forecast to be up to 40 KM/H throughout the week, with gusts to 50 KM/H, near showers.

Temperatures

Minimum low temperatures across Trinidad and Tobago over the next 4 days are forecast to range between 23°C-24°C. Low temperatures are likely to be lower across inland and mountainous areas. Last nights’ minimum temperatures were 24.6°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 22.8°C at Crown Point, Tobago.

Today, maximum high temperatures across T&T are forecast to be a warm 30°C at Piarco, Trinidad and a heat index of 33°C . Across Tobago, maximum high temperatures are forecast to be near 29°C with a heat index of 31°C. The heat index is an index that combines air temperature and relative humidity, generating a “feel’s like” temperature.

Maximum high temperatures may hover between 29-32°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 28-30°C at Crown Point, Tobago throughout the next 4 days due to showers and cloud cover keeping temperatures low.

Seas

Seas are forecast to remain moderate in open waters through the weekend. Waves in open waters are forecast to remain up to 2.0 meters particularly East of Trinidad and Tobago. On Friday into Saturday, waves could be up to 2.5 meters in open waters. In sheltered areas, seas are forecast to remain near calm. Winds are forecast to be from the east to northeast through the next 5 days at 15-20 knots.

Very Mild Concentrations of Saharan Dust Across T&T

Peak Air Quality Index Levels Over Next 5 Days. Note that most places across Northern Trinidad and Tobago are forecast to experience good air quality levels, with Central and Southern areas of Trinidad experiencing good to moderate air quality levels.

Presently, dust concentrations remain at minimal levels across the Southern Caribbean. Across Trinidad and Tobago, air quality is at good levels but there is Saharan dust across mainly Trinidad. Areas in the immediate vicinity of bushfires may experience moderate air quality.

Low concentrations of Saharan dust to move across parts of Trinidad beginning this evening, through Sunday, mainly affecting Southern and Central Trinidad.

At moderate air quality levels, unusually sensitive groups should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Over the next 7 days, no significant Saharan Dust outbreaks are forecast. By the 25th of April (next Thursday), a mild to moderate surge of Saharan Dust may return to Trinidad and Tobago, reducing visibility and air quality. We’ll be updating accordingly throughout the coming days on this.

00Z April 17th 2019 NASA GEOS-5 Dust Model, no significant Saharan dust concentrations are forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago over the next 6 days. A surge of Saharan Dust is forecast on the 25th April 2019. Credit: Weatherbell

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