Forecast: A Few Isolated, Heavy Showers Possible on Tuesday Afternoon.

Shelf cloud resulting from an isolated heavy shower, moving across Western Trinidad. These showers brought gloomy conditions to Western Trinidad this evening, with very little rainfall on-land. Credit: Karen Johnstone.

Forecast for the next 12 hours

Radar Image at 5:15PM Monday 11th March 2019 showing light to moderate showers scattered across the Gulf of Paria, with an isolated heavy shower just southwest of Port of Spain, producing the pictured above shelf cloud. (Image: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service)

Skies are to become clearer as the evening progresses, with partly cloudy and mostly settled conditions throughout the night. Brief, isolated showers are possible, mostly after midnight mainly due to low-level cloud patches moving in from the northeast. These showers are expected to remain light to moderate, with any heavier activity affecting Eastern and Northern Trinidad and Tobago.

Gentle to moderate breeze (10-30 KM/H) are expected overnight, with gusts up to 50 KM/H near showers.

Tuesday Weather Forecast

Graphical forecast for the next 24 hours. Information: Trinidad and Tobago Weather Center; Radar Image: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service.

Generally, a cloudy Tuesday is expected for much of Trinidad and Tobago, with a few sunny periods. There is a medium chance for showers, increasing by the afternoon, some of which may become heavy. These heavier showers will favor Eastern and Western areas of Trinidad, as well as coastal Northern Trinidad. Light to moderate showers are forecast elsewhere, including Tobago. These showers will linger into the overnight, with partly cloudy skies.

Model guidance for rainfall accumulation generally agree on 5-10 millimeters of rainfall occurring between 2:00AM Tuesday into 2:00AM Wednesday, with the highest accumulations occurring across Northern and Eastern Trinidad. It won’t be surprising to see rainfall totals up to 15 millimeters in isolated areas where a prolonged heavy shower, or repeated showers occur.

Why the change from mostly sunny skies?

The dominant high pressure influence across the Eastern Caribbean will begin to weaken due to a developing low pressure system northeast of the island chain. This weakening will cause a wind speeds across the region, including Trinidad and Tobago, to decrease marginally.

In addition, a mid-level trough is expected to enhance showery activity across the Windward islands, including Trinidad and Tobago. Low-level moisture will be ample for shower development, near 20-25 millimeters but intense convective activity (i.e. thunderstorms) are not expected due to drier mid- and upper-level environment.

On Wednesday, showers will still continue, albeit more isolated in nature with partly cloudy skies.

Temperatures

Minimum low temperatures across Trinidad and Tobago, over the next 48 hours, are expected to be between 23°C-24°C and likely lower across inland and mountainous areas.

Maximum high temperatures across both islands are expected to be mild, between 29°C-31°C.

Seas

Seas are expected to remain moderate in open waters. Waves in open waters are forecast to remain up to 2.0 meters. In sheltered areas, seas are expected to remain smooth, below 1.0 meters.

Winds are expected to be from the east to northeast, at 15 to 20 knots.

Some longer period swells in open waters are expected to end overnight tonight.

Saharan Dust

Long range dust models aren’t indicating any major intrusions of Saharan Dust over the next 5 days. However, by day 6, a moderate plume of Saharan dust is expected to blanket the region with air quality to be reduced to unhealthy for sensitive groups and at times, unhealthy.

0Z March 11th 2019 NASA GEOS-5 Dust Model, showing a large plume of moderately concentrated dust approaching the Lesser Antilles by the weekend (March 16th). Credit: Weatherbell

Over the next 5 days however, air quality will generally remain good to moderate so enjoy the outside air while it lasts!

EPA Air Quality Index Risk Levels
Saharan Dust Precautions
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