Adverse Weather Alert In Effect Beginning 2:00 AM Monday.

As expected, the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service has issued an Adverse Weather Alert due to the passage of a tropical wave, bringing the ITCZ across Trinidad and Tobago for the first time for 2019. Due to the passage of a tropical wave, adverse weather is forecast to begin after midnight across Trinidad and Tobago. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible across both islands. In addition, as we’ve forecast, this event is also likely to be our first heavy rainfall event for 2019.

Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm threat, watch or warning.

Based on the latest model guidance, these scattered to widespread showers, with isolated to scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms may produce severe weather across Trinidad and Tobago. Street floodingflash flooding, and if these rainfall accumulation totals above 50 millimeters verify, even riverine flooding may be possible. Gusty winds are possible in the vicinity and during heavy showers or thunderstorms. These gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be capable of triggering landslides in landslide-prone areas, as well as downing trees and utility poles.

Because of the impending adverse weather, the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service has issued an Adverse Weather Alert at 5:00 PM Sunday 16th June 2019, valid through 2:00 AM Monday until 3:00 PM Monday according to the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service. However, it is possible that inclement weather also extends well into Tuesday.

Information from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service concerning the Adverse Weather Alert for June 17th, 2019.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms, associated with the combination of a tropical wave and the ITCZ, are likely to affect various parts of Trinidad and Tobago. There is also the likelihood of winds gusting in excess of 55km/hr, especially during the morning. Street/ flash flooding or landslips may occur in heavy downpours. This “alert” status takes into account the possibility of the event occurring. This adverse weather event is likely.

The color of the watch indicates the severity of the event and the probability of the event occurring. Currently, the alert level is at Yellow. This means that the hazard is possible to be aware of the impacts of Street/Flash Flooding and Gusty Winds in your area. Areas prone to landslides should also be aware of the hazard and impacts.

Image Credit: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service

The 8th and 9th tropical waves of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago over the next 3 days. The axis of the closest wave is located at 57W, with a surge of moisture trailing the wave axis.

Tropical waves typically have fair weather ahead of the wave axis, though other features in the area such as surface troughs, increased atmospheric moisture, and local climatic effects, to name a few, may trigger showers and the odd thunderstorm. Following the passage of the wave, much of the active weather typically associated with a tropical wave occurs.
Tropical waves typically have fair weather ahead of the wave axis, though other features in the area such as surface troughs, increased atmospheric moisture, and local climatic effects, to name a few, may trigger showers and the odd thunderstorm. Following the passage of the wave, much of the active weather typically associated with a tropical wave occurs.

Based on the latest model guidance, the axis of this wave is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago overnight Sunday, with active weather occurring on Monday.

A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers means that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Generally, because of winds associated with weak tropical waves, showers and thunderstorms tend to follow a west-northwest track, generally missing areas across Southwestern Trinidad and even Northwestern Trinidad – though activity due to local climatic effects such as daytime heating may trigger shower and thunderstorm development across these areas.

This wave is not forecast to produce widespread severe weather based on the latest model guidance. However, isolated to scattered heavy rainfall is possible and we may see isolated to scattered severe weather mainly across Trinidad.

On Monday (2:00 AM Monday – 2:00 AM Tuesday), 24-hour rainfall accumulation is forecast to be less than 20 millimeters across both Trinidad and Tobago. Isolated areas may see between 20-40 millimeters in areas of locally heavy showers/thunderstorms or in areas with prolonged rainfall, particularly Eastern areas of Trinidad and Tobago. Note that across Southeastern Trinidad, a few models are also indicating accumulations upwards of 50 millimeters in the 24 hour period.

Reiterating: Based on the latest model guidance, these scattered to widespread showers, with isolated to scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms may produce severe weather across Trinidad and Tobago. Street floodingflash flooding, and if these rainfall accumulation totals above 50 millimeters verify, even riverine flooding may be possible. Gusty winds are possible in the vicinity and during heavy showers or thunderstorms. These gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be capable of triggering landslides in landslide-prone areas, as well as downing trees and utility poles.

Image Credit: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service
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