Adverse Weather Alert Cancelled by the TTMS. Showers & Thunderstorms Still Possible.

Adverse Weather Alert Cancelled

The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service has canceled the Adverse Weather Alert as the “active” weather associated with Tropical Wave 21 subsides. Note that the ITCZ is still present across the area. As of 9:30 AM, scattered moderate convection (showers, possible thunderstorms) are developing east of Tobago, moving west to west-northwestward.

This area of showers and possible thunderstorms are forecast to mainly move between Tobago and Barbados, but parts of Tobago and Northern Trinidad have the highest chances of experiencing thunderstorm activity today.

Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm threat, watch or warning.

Based on the latest model guidance, notable additional rainfall accumulation is forecast over the next 24-72 hours as the ITCZ continues to affect the region, with another tropical wave approaching Wednesday into Thursday. On Tuesday and Wednesday, much of the heavier rainfall is forecast to move across Trinidad, with the heaviest showers favoring Eastern parts of both islands. Rainfall accumulations between 20-30 millimeters are possible across western halves of T&T and between 30-50 millimeters across eastern halves of T&T.

Information from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service concerning the Adverse Weather Alert Cancellation for July 15th, 2019.

The color of the watch indicates the severity of the event and the probability of the event occurring. Currently, the alert level is at Green.

Image Credit: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service
Image Credit: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service

The 21st tropical wave of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is now well west of Trinidad and Tobago as of 9:30 AM Monday 15th July 2019.

Tropical waves typically have fair weather ahead of the wave axis, though other features in the area such as surface troughs, increased atmospheric moisture, and local climatic effects, to name a few, may trigger showers and the odd thunderstorm. Following the passage of the wave, much of the active weather typically associated with a tropical wave occurs.
Tropical waves typically have fair weather ahead of the wave axis, though other features in the area such as surface troughs, increased atmospheric moisture, and local climatic effects, to name a few, may trigger showers and the odd thunderstorm. Following the passage of the wave, much of the active weather typically associated with a tropical wave occurs.
 Image Credit: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service
Image Credit: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service

What to Expect Over Next 72 Hours

Forecast For Trinidad and Tobago

Monday, through midnight (10:00 AM Monday to 12:00 AM Tuesday) – Adverse Weather Alert Cancelled. Increasingly cloudy skies to give way to showers and isolated thunderstorms favoring Tobago and the northern half of Trinidad. Heavier showers to favor eastern parts of both islands. Across the southern half of Trinidad, partly cloudy skies with brisk isolated showers possible and the odd thunderstorm favoring coastal southwestern Trinidad into the Gulf of Paria. Conditions to become more settled later this evening into the night with few isolated, lingering showers.

Tuesday, (12:00 AM Tuesday to 12:00 AM Wednesday) – Periods of showers (i.e. intermittent) and thunderstorms forecast to begin after midnight, this time, favoring much of Trinidad as the ITCZ begins to drift southward. Partly cloudy skies to cloudy skies are forecast by daybreak, with showers and possible thunderstorms developing by the late morning through the early afternoon. Lingering showers are possible through the evening into the night, decreasing in intensity.

Wednesday (12:00 AM Wednesday to 12:00 AM Thursday) – Similarly to Tuesday, showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast after midnight through daybreak. Heavier showers are likely to affect Southeastern and Eastern Trinidad. After daybreak until the late morning, partly cloudy skies are forecast across both islands, with increasing cloudiness until the late morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible from the late morning through the afternoon, becoming more settled by the late evening into nightfall.

Note that through the next three days, locally heavy rainfall is possible during heavy showers and thunderstorms. In addition, gusty winds may occur in the vicinity of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Street/Flash flooding, landslides possible in flood-prone and landslide-prone areas although the adverse weather alert is cancelled.

Possible Impacts to Trinidad and Tobago

Note: Street/Flash flooding, frequent lightning, gusty winds, landslides/mudslides are all possible beginning Monday through Wednesday. In addition, locally heavy showers and thunderstorms may produce isolated areas, in excess of 50 millimeters of rainfall, particularly Eastern areas of Trinidad and Tobago and north of T&T.

Locally Heavy Rainfall & Flooding: Based on the latest model runs on Monday, from Monday (2:00 AM) through Thursday (2:00 PM), generally, over the 72 hour period, models are in agreement of fewer than 30 millimeters across Western halves of Trinidad and Tobago and between 30-50 millimeters across the Eastern halves of both islands. Isolated rainfall totals up to 75 millimeters are possible across Eastern coastal Trinidad and Tobago.

Generally, with heavy showers and thunderstorm activity, street flooding, particularly in flood-prone areas or areas with poor drainage, is possible as well as flash flooding in areas where more prolonged heavy rainfall may occur, based on the above-mentioned forecast rainfall totals.

Frequent Lightning: In addition, with thunderstorms, frequent lightning is likely. Thunderstorms are possible over the next few days.

Gusty Winds: Gusty winds, generally up to 60 KM/H are possible Gusty winds are most likely prior to, in the vicinity of, or occur during heavy showers or thunderstorms. With wind gusts up to 60 KM/H, whole trees are expected to be in motion and there may be some inconvenience when walking against the wind gusts. Light outdoor objects may topple or become airborne such as garbage cans, potted plants, loose galvanize or construction material and other outdoor furniture. Tents may jump. Older/weaker trees may fall.

High Wind Event Precautions
High Wind Event Precautions

Landslides: In landslide-prone areas, particularly in areas that receive heavy rainfall, landslides and/or mudflows may occur. These landslides, in addition to gusty winds, may down trees, utility poles and impede traffic on roadways.

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