Tropical Weather Outlook: Disturbance Near 0% Chance of Development in West Atlantic

At 8:10 AM, the US NWS National Hurricane Center issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook concerning an area of low-pressure East of the United States. This area of low pressure has low chances of tropical development near 0%, over the next 48 hours, and low chances of development over the next 5 days, at 0%.

2-Day Tropical Weather Outlook valid 8:09AM Saturday 4th May 2019 for the trough of low pressure across the Eastern Florida. Image: NWS/NOAA/NHC
2-Day Tropical Weather Outlook valid 8:09AM Saturday 4th May 2019 for the trough of low pressure across the Eastern Florida. Image: NWS/NOAA/NHC

Forecast Discussion

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity located offshore of the coast the Carolinas is associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are not conducive for tropical cyclone development and this system is expected to move northeastward and merge with a frontal system off the United States east coast by Sunday night.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on this system.

The top three global models forecasting tropical development, the UKMET, EMCWF and GFS, in their 12Z run on Saturday, have all dropped support for tropical development for this system.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

This system poses NO threat to the Eastern Caribbean, including Trinidad and Tobago.

Elsewhere Across the Atlantic Basin

According to the United States NWS Weather Prediction Center International Desk, their first analyzed tropical wave was analyzed in the Central Atlantic, also forecast to remain well south of Trinidad and Tobago with no impacts to the islands. It is this tropical wave which the increased concentrations of Saharan Dust are following. Note that the National Hurricane Center has not analyzed any tropical waves in their latest surface analysis as of 12Z Saturday 4th May 2019.

No tropical development is forecast elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin over the next 5 days.

May Tropical Cyclone Climatology

Tropical Cyclone Points of Origin for May (1851-2015). Credit: NWS/NOAA/NHC

While the official start to the Atlantic Hurricane Season isn’t until June 1st, early season tropical cyclones are not unheard of. 50 of the 89 out of season tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin have formed in the month of May, with the most recent being Tropical Storm Alberto on May 25th 2018. Thankfully, for Trinidad and Tobago, these early season systems tend to form in the Western Caribbean and Southwestern Atlantic, with no impact to the Eastern Caribbean and T&T.

However, it serves as a reminder that the 2019 Hurricane Season is rapidly approaching and it is important to become prepared for both the hurricane season and the rainy season ahead!

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