Tropical Weather Update:
— The first “official” tropical wave‘s axis of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season has now moved over Trinidad and Tobago. Scattered showers, some becoming heavy and thundery are forecast over the next 24-36 hours. Gusty winds, street flooding possible, mainly across Trinidad on Tuesday afternoon continuing through Wednesday, and Tobago beginning Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
Tropical Wave (01)
Based on wind shifts across Trinidad and Tobago earlier this morning, the first tropical wave of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season moved across Tobago between 6:00 AM and 7:00 AM and Trinidad between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM. The passage of a tropical wave can be distinguished by a wind shift of predominantly east, to east-northeast to the east-southeast.
This wave is relatively weak, so widespread severe weather and heavy rainfall are not expected, though locally heavy rainfall (i.e. in isolated areas) are possible. Gusty winds and street flooding are also possible.
The designation is significant to Trinidad and Tobago because the passage of the first Tropical Wave (or the first time the ITCZ modulates across T&T) signals the start of the wet season for the islands. Following the passage of the first true (i.e. classical genesis from the African Easterly Jet and convection over North Africa for this feature) TW, as designated by either the National Hurricane Center or by the discretion of the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service, the wet season is declared. Hence, we’re looking towards Tuesday (today) for the official start of the 2019 wet season.
Based on present model guidance, this first tropical wave is not forecast to be a large rainmaker, with rainfall accumulations generally 10-15 millimeters, and isolated totals up to 25 millimeters across Eastern parts of T&T. Most of the rainfall is forecast to continue presently and into Wednesday.
As the wave progresses westward, the wave is forecast to dissipate as it enters the Caribbean Sea.