Tropical Update: Weak Tropical Waves To Move Across T&T Over the Next 7 Days.

Tropical Update:
Tropical Wave 32: This strong tropical wave has is located Central Caribbean Sea, west of the Lesser Antilles. It is forecast to move across Hispanola and Jamaica over the next 24-48 hours, bringing showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds. High moisture and favorable atmospheric conditions continue to create favorable conditions for showers and thunderstorms across T&T through Tuesday. Street/flash flooding, gusty winds and landslides possible over the next 12 hours.
Tropical Wave 33: A weak tropical wave is located in the Central Atlantic, forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles on late Wednesday into Thursday. Periods of showers, thunderstorms expected across T&T. Street/flash flooding, landslides and gusty winds possible. Heavier showers forecast across the Southern half of Trinidad.
Tropical Wave 34: A weak tropical wave is located in the Eastern Atlantic, forecast to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday into Monday. Saharan Dust and dry mid-levels forecast to limit showers and thunderstorms, though activity is still possible, mainly on Monday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms to favor Trinidad.
Tropical Wave 35: A large tropical wave is presently moving off the West African Coast. Forecast to move across the Windwards late next week. Too soon to tell definitive impacts.
— No tropical cyclone formation forecast over the next 5 days across the Atlantic Basin.
— Beyond tropical waves, the ITCZ is forecast to continue affecting T&T between Tuesday and Thursday this week, as well as after Wednesday next week, bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms – normal for the rainy season.

Before we dive into the Tropical Updates on the tropical waves, a few notes:

  • Tropical waves are a normal part of the rainy season.
  • Not every tropical wave will form into a tropical cyclone.
  • Tropical waves at the beginning of the Hurricane Season are typically weak, producing more rainfall across Eastern parts of the islands with mostly cloudy conditions and a few showers across western parts of the islands.
  • Rainfall will be more isolated and intermittent with weaker tropical waves that do not have ITCZ or upper-level support.
  • Saharan Dust may weaken tropical waves.

You can read more about the weather associated with Tropical Waves, as well as what to expect as these waves move through the region below.

Tropical Wave 32/Ex-Invest 96L

Tropical Wave 32/Ex-Invest 96L, along 68/70W. This wave is moving across the Central Caribbean Sea, bringing locally heavy rainfall, street/flash flooding and inclement weather to Hispanola and Jamaica over the next 48 hours. Credit: Weathernerds.org
Tropical Wave 32/Ex-Invest 96L, along 68/70W. This wave is moving across the Central Caribbean Sea, bringing locally heavy rainfall, street/flash flooding and inclement weather to Hispanola and Jamaica over the next 48 hours. Credit: Weathernerds.org

Tropical Wave 32 is located in the Central Caribbean Sea, along 68/70W, moving west at approximately 10 knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the Caribbean Sea, south of Hispanola.

This strong tropical wave has brought inclement weather to much of the Lesser Antilles over the past several days. Street/flash flooding was reported across numerous islands across the Eastern Caribbean, with gusty winds during thunderstorms and landslides.

This tropical wave continues to influence our weather across Trinidad and Tobago, though being so far west of the Lesser Antilles. See more details in our latest forecast.

Tropical Wave 32 is forecast to move across Hispanola and Jamaica over the next 24-48 hours, bringing inclement weather to the islands. Street/flash flooding, gusty winds, and landslides are possible across those areas due to heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the northern and central wave axis.

Albeit impressive on satellite imagery, this system remains an open tropical wave and is not forecast to develop. There is no model support for this system.

Tropical Wave 33

Tropical Wave 33, along 51W. This wave is moving across the Central Atlantic Ocean, bringing locally heavy rainfall, street/flash flooding and inclement weather T&T by late Wednesday into Thursday. Credit: Weathernerds.org
Tropical Wave 33, along 51W. This wave is moving across the Central Atlantic Ocean, bringing locally heavy rainfall, street/flash flooding and inclement weather T&T by late Wednesday into Thursday. Credit: Weathernerds.org

Tropical Wave 33 is located in the Central Atlantic, along 51W, 15N southward, moving west at approximately 10 knots. The wave is well depicted in model guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave’s environment. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 09N-14N between 48W-52W.

The interaction of the northern portion of the wave with an upper- level low near 23N60W is reflected as a surface trough that extends from 12N56W to 21N54W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along this trough from 13N- 22N between 54W- 58W.

This tropical wave is forecast to begin affecting Trinidad, Tobago, and the Southern Windwards by late Wednesday into Thursday.

By late Wednesday, much of the showers and thunderstorms are forecast to favor Trinidad and Tobago and the southern Windwards. On Thursday, heavier showers and thunderstorms are forecast to favor the northern Windwards and Leewards.

Heavier showers are forecast to favor Southern and Central Trinidad over the 24-36 hour period. Street/flash flooding and gusty winds possible.

Why I May Not/Will Not See Constant Rainfall?

Tropical waves typically have fair weather ahead of the wave axis, though other features in the area such as surface troughs, increased atmospheric moisture, and local climatic effects, to name a few, may trigger showers and the odd thunderstorm. Following the passage of the wave, much of the active weather typically associated with a tropical wave occurs.
Tropical waves typically have fair weather ahead of the wave axis, though other features in the area such as surface troughs, increased atmospheric moisture, and local climatic effects, to name a few, may trigger showers and the odd thunderstorm. Following the passage of the wave, much of the active weather typically associated with a tropical wave occurs.

A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity.

Generally, because of winds associated with tropical waves, showers and thunderstorms tend to follow a west-northwest track, generally missing areas across Southwestern Trinidad and even Northwestern Trinidad – though activity due to local climatic effects such as daytime heating may trigger shower and thunderstorm development across these areas. See the below graphic for a simple explanation.

With Tropical Wave 33, scattered activity is forecast. Hence, we are likely to see showers and thunderstorms, interrupting partly cloudy to overcast skies late Wednesday into Thursday.

Tropical Wave 34

Tropical Wave 34, in the Eastern/Central Atlantic, along 35/36W. This wave is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles late Sunday into Monday. Credit: Weathernerds.org
Tropical Wave 34, in the Eastern/Central Atlantic, along 35/36W. This wave is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles late Sunday into Monday. Credit: Weathernerds.org

Tropical Wave 34 is located in the Central/Eastern Atlantic, along 35/36W, 16N southward to 4N, moving west at approximately 10-15 knots. This tropical wave is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles Sunday into Monday, bringing increased chances of showers and the isolated thunderstorm.

However, based on present model guidance, moisture at mid-levels of the atmosphere may be less than optimal, inhibiting deep convection from development. Still, shallow convection may become heavy at times, with gusty winds. Additional updates to follow in our next tropical update.

Tropical Wave 35

  Tropical Wave 35, still over the West African Coast, along 10/12W. This wave is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles late next week. No tropical development expected. Credit: Weathernerds.org
Tropical Wave 35, still over the West African Coast, along 10/12W. This wave is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles late next week. No tropical development expected. Credit: Weathernerds.org

Tropical Wave 35 is located in the on the West African Coast, along 10/12W, 5-16N. This tropical wave is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles late next week.

It is too soon to tell definitive impacts this wave may have to the Lesser Antilles. What we know at this time is that there is no support for tropical cyclone formation.

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

Tropical Cyclone Points of Origin during the month of August. This month, the attention goes to tropical waves moving across the Atlantic, particularly as they near the Lesser Antilles, as well as low-pressure systems in the Gulf of Mexico and troughs Southeast of the United States.

In August, we turn our eyes to East of the Lesser Antilles, the Southeastern areas of the United States and the Gulf of Mexico for the formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, historically. However, tropical cyclones can form in the Atlantic Basin, without regard for the location once conditions support development. Stay updated with the latest tropical update!

There are NO tropical cyclone threats to the Eastern Caribbean, including Trinidad and Tobago at this time in the latest Tropical Update.

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Names
Facebook Comments