Tropical Update: Tropical Wave 14 Moves West, Tropical Wave 15 To Bring Inclement Weather to T&T by Thursday.

Tropical Weather Update:
Tropical Wave 14: This tropical wave moved across T&T overnight, as forecast, bringing showers and thunderstorms to mainly parts of Trinidad. Locally heavy rainfall, street flooding, gusty winds occurred across various parts of Trinidad as this wave interacted with the ITCZ and an upper-level trough. No further impacts forecast for T&T as this wave moves westward.
Tropical Wave 15: A tropical wave has moved off the West African Coast. This wave is forecast to bring a surge of moisture across much of the Lesser Antilles late Wednesday through Friday, increasing cloudiness, showers and possible thunderstorms are likely across Trinidad, Tobago, and the Southern Windwards through the end of the week, particularly on Thursday.
No Tropical Development forecast elsewhere across the Atlantic basin over the next 5 days as of the latest tropical update.

Tropical Wave 14

Tropical Wave 14, with showers and thunderstorms now moving west of Trinidad and Tobago. Scattered showers and locally heavy showers/thunderstorms occurred overnight through this morning, triggering localized gusty winds and street flooding. Credit: Weathernerds.org

A tropical wave is located at 67W, with its axis along 15N extending southward, moving westward at 20 knots. Scattered showers on either side of its axis are ongoing, with isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms east of the wave axis.

This wave brought locally heavy rainfall across Trinidad overnight, with the first round of showers and thunderstorms occurring between 4:00 PM and 7:00 PM across the island. This round of showers dumped 20-40 millimeters of rainfall within 3 hours, with heavier totals occurring across Northeastern Trinidad. Street Flooding was reported in Sangre Grande, Cumoto, Coal Mine and environs, as was forecast. These showers also brought the gustiest winds of the night, with gusts generally remaining between 40-50 KM/H across parts of Trinidad.

Automated Weather Station and Personal Weather Station sites showing rainfall accumulations across Trinidad over the last 24 hours. Note that the highest rainfall totals occurred across Eastern Trinidad, where there are no sites publicly reporting data.
Automated Weather Station and Personal Weather Station sites showing rainfall accumulations across Trinidad over the last 24 hours. Note that the highest rainfall totals occurred across Eastern Trinidad, where there are no sites publicly reporting data.

The second round of showers and thunderstorms began after midnight, across mainly Trinidad again, bringing more locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Street flooding was reported across parts of Eastern and Southern Trinidad, with reports of downed trees across parts of Central Trinidad.

Although an adverse weather alert was issued through 4:00 PM today (Monday 1st July 2019), we did mention that by the mid- to late-morning, much of the showers and thunderstorms associated with this wave would move out of the region, with possible lingering isolated showers, which generally remained across Southern coastal areas of Trinidad.

1:30 PM Update: The Adverse Weather Alert was Cancelled

Recent adverse weather associated mainly with the ITCZ ( Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) is no longer of any threat. – Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service

This wave is forecast to continue on its westward track, bringing some much welcome rainfall to the ABC islands and Northern Venezuela. No further impacts are forecast, as of 1:00 PM Monday 1st July 2019.

Tropical Wave 15

Tropical Wave 15, west of the West African Coast on Monday afternoon, with the axis of this wave along 35W. Scattered showers and heavy showers/thunderstorms are occurring near the axis of this wave, mainly east of the axis. It is forecast to move across T&T on Thursday into Friday of this upcoming week. Credit: Weathernerds.org

The axis of this wave extends its axis along 35W from 01N-16N, moving W at 20-25 knots. This wave has little surface component, however, the wave is noticeable in the wave model diagnostics and total precipitable water imagery. Scattered showers are noted from 05N-10N between the coast of Africa and 35W, as it is embedded within the ITCZ.

This wave is forecast to bring a surge of moisture across much of the Lesser Antilles, keeping showers and possible thunderstorms in the forecast beginning late Wednesday, lingering through Friday. The highest chances for showers and thunderstorms across Trinidad and Tobago would be on Thursday and Friday, as the ITCZ moves near T&T, coupled with favorable atmospheric conditions.

Gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, street/flash flooding are all on the table for T&T, particularly on Thursday and Friday. Note that this is still several days out, so specifics on rainfall accumulation and locations may change in a future tropical update.

Regardless, expect an adverse weather alert to be issued closer to the date, at models continue to trend towards inclement weather over Thursday through Friday.

Possible Impacts to Trinidad and Tobago

Locally Heavy Rainfall & Flooding: Based on the 00Z to 12Z Monday model runs, from Wednesday (2:00 PM) through Saturday (2:00 AM), generally, over the 72 hour period, models are in agreement of less than 20 millimeters across Western parts of Trinidad and Tobago, between 20-40 millimeters across Southern, Central and Eastern Trinidad, as well as Eastern Tobago. Isolated rainfall totals up to 70 millimeters possible across Eastern Trinidad.

The heaviest activity is forecast to occur Thursday into Friday, though there is some model disagreement on this, where the GFS (American model) favors Thursday but the EMCWF (European Model) favors Friday. Based on the latest forward speed of this wave, TTWC is leaning towards Thursday for this wave to move across the islands, with active weather forecast on both Thursday and Friday as the ITCZ and upper-level trough remains across Trinidad and Tobago.

Generally, with heavy showers and thunderstorm activity, street flooding, particularly in flood-prone areas or areas with poor drainage, is possible as well as flash flooding in areas where more prolonged heavy rainfall may occur, based on the above-mentioned forecast rainfall totals.

Frequent Lightning: In addition, with thunderstorms, frequent lightning is likely. Thunderstorms are forecast to occur mainly on Thursday and Friday, across the Southern Windwards, including Trinidad and Tobago, as well as parts of the French Antilles.

Gusty Winds: Gusty winds, generally up to 50 KM/H are likely. Gusty winds are most likely between 10:00 AM to 5:00 PM, and prior to, in the vicinity of, or occur during heavy showers or thunderstorms. With wind gusts up to 50 KM/H, whole trees are expected to be in motion and there may be some inconvenience when walking against the wind gusts. Light outdoor objects may topple or become airborne such as garbage cans, potted plants, loose galvanize or construction material and other outdoor furniture. Tents may jump. Older/weaker trees may fall.

High Wind Event Precautions
High Wind Event Precautions

Landslides: In landslide-prone areas, particularly in areas that receive heavy rainfall, landslides and/or mudflows may occur. These landslides, in addition to gusty winds, may down trees, utility poles and impede traffic on roadways.

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

Tropical Cyclone Points of Origin during the month of July. This month, the attention goes to tropical waves moving across the Atlantic, particularly as they near the Lesser Antilles, as well as low-pressure systems in the Gulf of Mexico and troughs Southeast of the United States.

In July, we turn our eyes to East of the Lesser Antilles, the Southeastern areas of the United States and the Gulf of Mexico for the formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, historically. However, tropical cyclones can form in the Atlantic Basin, without regard for the location once conditions support development. Stay updated with the latest tropical update!

There are NO tropical cyclone threats to the Eastern Caribbean, including Trinidad and Tobago at this time in the latest Tropical Update.

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