Tropical Update: Tropical Wave 04 To Begin Affecting T&T Later Today, Another on Sunday into Monday

Tropical Weather Update:
Tropical Wave 04: A weak tropical wave is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago late Friday (today) into Saturday (8th June), bringing isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms by late this evening into the first half of Saturday. Models have backed off overall rainfall totals, but have increased confidence in thunderstorm activity later this evening through tomorrow morning. Street flooding, gusty winds possible!
Tropical Wave 05: A weak tropical wave is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago on Sunday (June 9th) into Monday (June 10th). Similar impacts to TW04 is forecast, scattered showers later on Sunday through Monday, and the medium to high chance of thunderstorm activity,
No Tropical Development forecast elsewhere across the Atlantic basin over the next 5 days as of the latest tropical update.

Tropical Wave (04)

The fourth tropical wave of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago Friday into Saturday as of the latest tropical update.

Today, hot and hazy conditions are to persist through the mid to late morning. Low-level moisture is forecast to increase as the day progresses, so as a result of daytime heating, there may be a few isolated showers developing over (mainly) Trinidad.

By the late afternoon, however, scattered showers, some becoming heavy, are forecast to begin. By the evening, model guidance is indicating the development and presence of thunderstorms across Trinidad, with scattered showers and isolated heavy showers persisting through the night into Saturday.

Heavier showers and thunderstorms are initially to favor parts of Eastern Trinidad and Tobago, gradually moving west to west-northwest across both islands. Note that the heaviest activity is still forecast to occur across parts of Eastern and extreme Southern Trinidad.

This wave continues to move fairly slowly, at 10 knots, westward. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 08N-10N between 52W-58W.

This wave is not forecast to produce widespread severe weather, nor is it forecast to produce widespread heavy rainfall. However, isolated to scattered heavy showers and i.e. rainfall is possible, particularly near thunderstorms.

Rainfall accumulation is forecast to be between 10-20 millimeters across both islands, with totals between 20-40 millimeters possible across Eastern parts of both islands. Generally, street flooding and/or flash flooding is possible, particularly in areas that experience isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms. In addition, gusty winds are likely in the vicinity of heavy showers and/or thunderstorms.

Following the passage of this wave, winds are forecast to increase across Trinidad and Tobago. Breezy conditions with gusty winds are likely to continue through Tuesday, with winds gusts up to 60 KM/H and higher at times in the vicinity of showers or thunderstorms!

Tropical waves typically have fair weather ahead of the wave axis, though other features in the area such as surface troughs, increased atmospheric moisture, and local climatic effects, to name a few, may trigger showers and the odd thunderstorm. Following the passage of the wave, much of the active weather typically associated with a tropical wave occurs.
Tropical waves typically have fair weather ahead of the wave axis, though other features in the area such as surface troughs, increased atmospheric moisture, and local climatic effects, to name a few, may trigger showers and the odd thunderstorm. Following the passage of the wave, much of the active weather typically associated with a tropical wave occurs.

A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Generally, because of winds associated with weak tropical waves, showers and thunderstorms tend to follow a west-northwest track, generally missing areas across Southwestern Trinidad and even Northwestern Trinidad – though activity due to local climatic effects such as daytime heating may trigger shower and thunderstorm development across these areas. See the below graphic for a simple explanation.

Tropical Wave 05

This tropical wave, as of 8:00 AM Friday 7th June 2019, located in the Central Atlantic Ocean as of the latest tropical update. The axis of this wave extends from 02N45W to 10N43W, moving west at 20 kt. The wave remains in a hostile environment, including dry air and strong wind shear. This limits the convection associated with it.

This wave is weak at this time and is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago Sunday into Monday. It is moving fairly quickly at 20 knots westward. Changes in the forward speed of the wave can speed up or slow down the axis of the wave by a day or so.

This wave is not forecast to produce widespread or scattered severe weather, nor is it forecast to produce widespread heavy rainfall. However, locally heavy rainfall is possible in heavy showers and/or thunderstorms. This “active” weather is forecast to occur Sunday into Monday, with thunderstorm activity likely on Monday.

Rainfall accumulation is forecast to be between 10-30 millimeters across both islands, with totals between 30-50 millimeters possible across Eastern parts of both islands. Generally, street flooding and/or flash flooding is possible, particularly in areas that experience isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms. In addition, gusty winds are likely in the vicinity of heavy showers and/or thunderstorms.

Following the passage of this tropical wave, another surge of Saharan Dust is forecast to move across the Eastern Caribbean, in addition to gusty winds persisting.

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

Tropical Cyclone Points of Origin for the first week of June (1851-2015). Credit: NWS/NOAA/NHC

For the first week of June, we turn our eyes to the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico for the formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, historically. However, tropical cyclones can form in the Atlantic Basin, without regard for the location once conditions support development.

There are NO tropical cyclone threats to the Eastern Caribbean, including Trinidad and Tobago at this time.

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