Tropical Update: Saharan Dust Dominates Atlantic. Tropical Wave To Bring Showers, Thunderstorms By Late Weekend

Tropical Weather Update:
Tropical Wave 09: The axis of this tropical wave is well west of Trinidad and Tobago after bringing showers and thunderstorms to the islands on Wednesday. No further impacts expected.
Tropical Wave 10: The prior wave that was dubbed TW10 lost its characteristics, and TW11 was renamed TW10. This tropical wave is located in the Central Atlantic, moving quickly westward. It is forecast to move across the Southern Windwards on Sunday but has a large moisture field associated with its axis, as it is embedded within the ITCZ. This may be another heavy rainfall event mainly across Trinidad, with rainfall accumulations up to 100 millimeters possible over the 72 hour period (Saturday through Monday).
No Tropical Development forecast elsewhere across the Atlantic basin over the next 5 days as of the latest tropical update.

Tropical Wave 09

Tropical Wave 09 moving across the Caribbean Sea, west of the Lesser Antilles. Image Credit: Weathernerds.org
Tropical Wave 09 moving across the Caribbean Sea, west of the Lesser Antilles. Image Credit: Weathernerds.org

This tropical wave’s axis extends along 68W, south of 17N, moving west at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within the northern vicinity of the wave from 14N-17N between 65W-70W.

This wave brought some inclement weather to Trinidad and Tobago on Wednesday as well as gusty winds and Saharan Dust following the passage of the wave axis. No further impacts expected.

Tropical Wave 10

Tropical Wave 10 in the Central Atlantic, embedded within the ITCZ, with widespread cloudiness and scattered showers moving closer to the Lesser Antilles in this tropical update. Image Credit: Weathernerds.org
Tropical Wave 10 in the Central Atlantic, embedded within the ITCZ, with widespread cloudiness and scattered showers moving closer to the Lesser Antilles in this tropical update. Image Credit: Weathernerds.org

Clarification: The name Tropical Wave 10 was given to a wave in the Central Atlantic, which eventually lost its tropical characteristics. Following dissipation, it was given to the wave to the east, at the time was Tropical Wave 11.

The axis of Tropical Wave 10 is presently located along 41W, south of 13 N, moving rapidly westward at 20-25 knots. Based on present model guidance, the axis of this wave is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago on Sunday, with increased cloudiness, showers and possible thunderstorms affecting Trinidad and Tobago beginning late Saturday through Monday.

This wave is forecast to significantly improve air quality across Trinidad and Tobago, returning air quality to good after days of air quality between moderate and unhealthy. However, another surge of Saharan dust is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles following the passage of this wave, by June 25th, 2019.

Possible Impacts to Trinidad and Tobago

Flooding: Based on the 12Z Thursday model runs, we’re forecasting generally less than 10 millimeters per day (per 24 hours) across Trinidad and Tobago, with 10-30 millimeters of rainfall affecting parts of Central and Eastern Trinidad, with 30-50 millimeters particularly across Southeastern Trinidad. The heaviest activity is forecast to occur on Sunday. Generally, with heavy showers and thunderstorm activity, street flooding, particularly in flood-prone areas or areas with poor drainage, is possible as well as flash flooding in areas where more prolonged heavy rainfall may occur, based on the above-mentioned forecast rainfall totals.

Frequent Lightning: In addition, with thunderstorms, frequent lightning is likely. Thunderstorms are forecast to occur mainly after midnight on Sunday across T&T.

Gusty Winds: Gusty winds, generally between 50-60 KM/H are also possible. These wind gusts will generally occur prior to, in the vicinity of, or occur during heavy showers or thunderstorms. With wind gusts up to 60 KM/H, whole trees are expected to be in motion and there may be some inconvenience when walking against the wind gusts. Light outdoor objects may topple or become airborne such as garbage cans, loose galvanize or construction material and other outdoor furniture. Tents may jump.

Landslides: In landslide-prone areas, particularly in areas that receive heavy rainfall, landslides and/or mudflows may occur. These landslides, in addition to gusty winds, may down trees, utility poles and impede traffic on roadways.

This wave, based on present model guidance, is not forecast to produce widespread severe weather. However, isolated to scattered severe weather is possible as isolated to scattered heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms are in the forecast. It is in the realm of possibility that another Adverse Weather Alert may be issued by the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service for Sunday 23rd June 2019. Updates on this wave will follow in subsequent tropical updates and weather forecasts.

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

Tropical Cyclone Points of Origin during the month of June. Though attention is usually placed on the Western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the Western Atlantic, a few storms have developed east of Trinidad and Tobago during the month of June, most recently and notably – Tropical Storm Bret in 2017.

In June, we turn our eyes to the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico for the formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, historically. However, tropical cyclones can form in the Atlantic Basin, without regard for the location once conditions support development.

There are NO tropical cyclone threats to the Eastern Caribbean, including Trinidad and Tobago at this time in the latest Tropical Update.

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