Tropical Update: Adverse Weather Likely to Continue Through Wednesday Due to Tropical Wave, ITCZ.

Tropical Weather Update:
Tropical Wave 08: The axis of this tropical wave is now well west of Trinidad and Tobago, after producing havoc across T&T on Monday. Isolated rainfall totals between 50-100 millimeters produced street flooding across parts of Trinidad, with numerous power outages and downed trees resulting from gusty winds.
Tropical Wave 09: The axis of this tropical wave is just over 700 kilometers east of Trinidad and Tobago. This wave is forecast to move across T&T on Tuesday, bringing another round of severe weather across both islands Tuesday into Wednesday. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds are the main threats from this wave. Inclement weather is likely! Adverse Weather Alert #2 In Effect Through 4:00 PM Tuesday, though this may be extended.
Tropical Wave 10: This tropical wave is located in the Central Atlantic, moving westward. It is forecast to move across the Southern Windwards on Wednesday through Thursday, but it is not forecast to be a significant rain maker for Trinidad and Tobago. However, a surge of dust and winds are forecast following the passage of this wave, with parts of the Northern Windwards, French Antilles and Barbados experiencing wind gusts well above 60-70 KM/H at times. Across T&T, hazy and wind gusts between 50-60 KM/H are possible.
Tropical Wave 11: This wave is over a week away, but poses the threat for another heavy rainfall event by Sunday into next Monday.
No Tropical Development forecast elsewhere across the Atlantic basin over the next 5 days as of the latest tropical update.

Tropical Wave 08

This tropical wave’s axis was along 65W south of 12N moving west near 15 – 20 knots. This tropical wave has begun to lose its signature in the wind field. Widely scattered moderate convection is ongoing near the wave axis presently.

This wave, in conjunction with the ITCZ and a favorably positioned upper level trough allowed moderate to strong convective activity (showers, thunderstorms) to persist across Trinidad and to a lesser extent, Tobago, on Monday.

Rainfall accumulations between 20-50 millimeters, with isolated areas between 50-100 millimeters were recorded across both Trinidad and Tobago. Most of this rainfall was welcomed, but a persisting mid-morning thunderstorm across Central Trinidad produced widespread street flooding across Chaguanas.

This wave also produced gusty winds across Trinidad and Tobago, with gusts generally remaining below 60 KM/H. However, these gusts downed several trees across Eastern, Central and Southern Trinidad, with power outages occurring across various parts of Trinidad.

In addition, gusty winds also damaged roofs across Southern Trinidad

Gusty winds accompanying rain due to the passage of a tropical wave, resulted in roofs being blown off some homes in Chatham on Monday. Credit: Trinidad Guardian
Gusty winds accompanying rain due to the passage of a tropical wave resulted in roofs being blown off some homes in Chatham on Monday. Credit: Trinidad Guardian

Because of persisting thunderstorms, since midnight Monday, through 11:00 PM Monday, over 8,300 lightning strikes were recorded with over 4,400 strikes being dangerous cloud-to-ground strikes.

This wave is now west of Trinidad and Tobago, but due to a lingering ITCZ and another approaching Tropical Wave, inclement weather is forecast to persist.

Tropical Wave 09

11:00 PM Monday 17th June 2019 Radar Update: A line of light to moderate showers ahead of more widespread showers are moving across Eastern parts of Trinidad. Widespread showers are forecast to move across Trinidad after midnight, with thunderstorms and widespread showers through Tuesday afternoon. Radar Image: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service
11:00 PM Monday 17th June 2019 Radar Update: A line of light to moderate showers ahead of more widespread showers are moving across Eastern parts of Trinidad. Widespread showers are forecast to move across Trinidad after midnight, with thunderstorms and widespread showers through Tuesday afternoon. Radar Image: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service

This tropical wave’s axis extends along 54W south of 13N, moving west at 20 knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection is ongoing near the wave axis presently, mainly east of the wave axis.

Based on present model guidance, this wave axis is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago on Tuesday with showers lingering into the first half of Wednesday. Both the GFS and EMCWF are indicating widespread showers of varying intensities and scattered thunderstorms through this period, continuing from Monday’s activity. Increased atmospheric moisture will be present across nearly all levels of the atmosphere, and generally favorable conditions will be present for the development of moderate to strong convection.

This wave is not forecast to produce widespread severe weather based on the latest model guidance. However, isolated to scattered heavy rainfall is possible and we may see isolated to scattered severe weather mainly across Trinidad.

On Tuesday (2:00 AM Tuesday – 2:00 AM Wednesday), 24-hour rainfall accumulation is forecast to be less than 15 millimeters across Tobago. Across Trinidad, 20-30 millimeters are forecast, with isolated areas receiving between 30-60 millimeters, particularly Eastern and Southern areas of Trinidad.

On Wednesday (2:00 AM Wednesday – 2:00 AM Thursday), 24-hour rainfall accumulation is forecast to be less than 15 millimeters across Tobago. Across Trinidad, less than 15 millimeters are forecast across the island, with isolated totals between 25-35 millimeters possible Eastern parts of Trinidad.

Similar to activity on Monday, showers, and thunderstorms are likely to begin after midnight persisting through the early afternoon. By the late afternoon through the evening, there may be a lull in activity, with another round of inclement weather after midnight.

In addition, this wave is forecast to bring a trade wind surge, with wind gusts beginning on Wednesday across the Northern Windwards, French Antilles and Barbados of 60-70 KM/H, and at times, higher.

Seas are generally forecast to remain moderate, with waves up to 2.5 meters in open waters and below 1.0 meters in sheltered areas. Note that in the vicinity of heavy showers or thunderstorms, seas may be locally rough and/or choppy, both in open waters and sheltered areas.

Temperatures across both islands are forecast to remain generally cool, with maximum high temperatures between 27°C and 28°C across both islands due to showers and cloud cover.

Possible Impacts to Trinidad and Tobago

Flooding: Generally with heavy showers and thunderstorm activity, street flooding, particularly in flood-prone areas or areas with poor drainage, is possible as well as flash flooding in areas where more prolonged heavy rainfall may occur, based on the above-mentioned forecast rainfall totals.

Frequent Lightning: In addition, with thunderstorms, frequent lightning is likely. Though, thunderstorms are not forecast to be as widespread as they were on Monday.

Gusty Winds: Gusty winds, generally between 50-60 KM/H are also possible. These wind gusts will generally occur prior to, in the vicinity of, or occur during heavy showers or thunderstorms. With wind gusts up to 60 KM/H, whole trees are expected to be in motion and there may be some inconvenience when walking against the wind gusts. Light outdoor objects may topple or become airborne such as garbage cans, loose galvanize or construction material and other outdoor furniture. Tents may jump.

Landslides: In landslide-prone areas, particularly in areas that receive heavy rainfall, landslides and/or mudflows may occur. These landslides, in addition to gusty winds, may down trees, utility poles and impede traffic on roadways.

Tropical Wave 10

11:00 PM Monday 17th June 2019 Tropical Update
11:00 PM Monday 17th June 2019 Tropical Update

This tropical wave’s axis extends along 40W south of 13N, moving west at 20-25 knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection is ongoing near the wave axis presently.

Based on present model guidance, this wave axis is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago on Wednesday night into Thursday. This wave is not forecast to produce heavy rainfall as it will be affected by significant concentrations of Saharan Dust, though a few isolated showers and increased cloudiness can’t be ruled out.

What this wave will bring is a dense plume of Saharan dust following the passage, reducing air quality across the Eastern Caribbean to moderate and at times unhealthy for sensitive groups levels.

This wave is not forecast to produce any severe weather based on the latest model guidance with minimal rainfall accumulations.

On Thursday (2:00 AM Thursday – 2:00 AM Friday), 24-hour rainfall accumulation is forecast to be less than 5 millimeters across both Trinidad and Tobago.

Tropical Wave 11

11:00 PM Monday 17th June 2019 Tropical Update
11:00 PM Monday 17th June 2019 Tropical Update

This tropical wave’s axis is just moving off the West African coast and is forecast to race across the Atlantic Ocean, moving across the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, dragging the ITCZ northward.

This wave is not forecast to produce widespread severe weather. However, isolated to scattered heavy rainfall, in addition to isolated to scattered severe weather are possible in heavy showers and/or thunderstorms. This “active” weather is forecast mainly on Sunday into Monday, i.e. over a week away. Updates will follow in subsequent tropical updates.

Moderate to heavy rainfall accumulation is forecast, with 24-hour totals forecast to be less than 20-25 millimeters across Trinidad and Tobago. Isolated areas may receive up to 50 millimeters based on present model guidance. Gusty winds may occur in the vicinity of heavy showers and/or thunderstorms, though thunderstorm chances are fairly low at this time.

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

Tropical Cyclone Points of Origin during the month of June. Though attention is usually placed on the Western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the Western Atlantic, a few storms have developed east of Trinidad and Tobago during the month of June, most recently and notably – Tropical Storm Bret in 2017.

In June, we turn our eyes to the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico for the formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, historically. However, tropical cyclones can form in the Atlantic Basin, without regard for the location once conditions support development.

There are NO tropical cyclone threats to the Eastern Caribbean, including Trinidad and Tobago at this time in the latest Tropical Update.

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