Tropical Storm Humberto Forecast to Become Our Next Hurricane on Sunday

At 5:00 PM Saturday AST, the National Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories on Tropical Storm Humberto, 115 kilometers north of Great Abaco Island.

The center of Tropical Storm Humberto was located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 77.3 West. Humberto is moving toward the north-northwest near 11 KM/H, and this general motion with a gradual turn to the north is expected during the next day or so. A sharp turn to the northeast is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto should continue to move away from the northwestern Bahamas tonight, and then move well offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 KM/H with higher gusts. Humberto is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday night or early Monday well east of the east coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 kilometers to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 millibars.

Forecast Cone for Tropical Storm Humberto as of 5:00 PM Saturday 14th September 2019. Credit: National Hurricane Center
Forecast Cone for Tropical Storm Humberto as of 5:00 PM Saturday 14th September 2019. Credit: National Hurricane Center

Watches & Warnings

Watches and Warnings in effect for Tropical Storm Humberto as of 5:00 PM Saturday 14th September 2019. Credit: National Hurricane Center
Watches and Warnings in effect for Tropical Storm Humberto as of 5:00 PM Saturday 14th September 2019. Credit: National Hurricane Center

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas.

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

Hazards Affecting Land

Wind: Gusty winds in squalls are still affecting the northwestern Bahamas. These winds should subside later tonight.

Rainfall: Humberto is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Monday:

  • The Bahamas – An additional 1 to 3 inches (25-100 mm), isolated storm totals of 6 inches (150 mm).

    Street and flash flooding are possible.

Seas: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect the coasts of Central Florida to South Carolina late this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


This tropical storm is of no threat to the Lesser Antilles, including Trinidad and Tobago.

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion

Tropical Storm Humberto churning just east of the Northwestern Bahamas. Credit: Weathernerds
Tropical Storm Humberto churning just east of the Northwestern Bahamas. Credit: Weathernerds

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane extensively investigated Humberto during the past several hours. Data from the plane indicated that the circulation was much better defined than yesterday and the winds increased to 45 kt. Since the plane left, satellite images revealed that the cloud pattern has continued to become better organized, and the low-level center is now under the convection. However, the Dvorak numbers still support keeping the same intensity of 45 kt at this time.

Now that the shear appears to be decreasing and Humberto will be moving over warm waters, the NHC forecast continues to call for strengthening. Humberto is anticipated to become a hurricane in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic well east of the Florida east coast, and well away from the Bahamas. The intensity forecast continues to be consistent with the solutions of the consensus model and the corrected consensus HCCA. In addition, all global models intensify Humberto and show an increase in the size of the storm.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Humberto has begun to move very slowly toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 6 kt. The ridge over the western Atlantic that has been trapping Humberto is already weakening, and this should result in slow motion toward the north-northwest and then north during the next day or so. After that time, the cyclone will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies, and Humberto, by then a hurricane, is forecast to sharply recurve northeastward away from the United States with no significant increase in forward speed. Only by the end of the forecast period, Humberto should begin to accelerate. The NHC
forecast is very consistent with the track guidance which once again clearly depict the slow motion of the system, and then a sharp right turn in 2 or 3 days.

Discussion by National Hurricane Center’s Forecaster Avila

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