Tropical Weather Update:
— TW 01: The first “official” tropical wave’s axis of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season has now moved over Trinidad and Tobago, triggering the beginning of the 2019 Wet Season.
— TW 02: The next tropical wave is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago on Sunday into Monday, bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. This is another weak tropical wave.
Tropical Wave (01)
Based on wind shifts across Trinidad and Tobago on Tuesday, the first tropical wave of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season moved across Tobago between 6:00 AM and 7:00 AM and Trinidad between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM Tuesday morning. The passage of a tropical wave can be distinguished by a wind shift of predominantly east, to east-northeast to the east-southeast.
This wave was relatively weak but did produce some fairly notable rain totals across Trinidad and Tobago. Generally, 10-20 millimeters were recorded across most areas of Trinidad and Tobago, with a few areas recording upwards of 30 millimeters. Street flooding was also reported along the East-West Corridor of Trinidad but quickly subsided. Southwestern Trinidad, on the other hand, received very little rainfall, as most of the showers and thunderstorms moved west-northwest instead of westward, moving activity away from SW Trinidad.
Tropical Wave (02)
The second tropical wave of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is located in the Central Atlantic Ocean in the latest tropical update. The axis of this wave is located at 40W, with a surge of moisture trailing the wave axis. In addition, a surge of trade winds and Saharan Dust is forecast to follow this wave, bringing moderate concentrations of Saharan Dust across Trinidad and Tobago over next week.
Tropical waves typically take 5-7 days to travel across the Atlantic Ocean and move across Trinidad and Tobago. As of the latest GFS, FV3, and EMCWF models in their 00Z runs on Thursday, they all show a concentrated plume of tropical moisture arriving across Trinidad and Tobago next Sunday 2nd June 2019 into Monday 3rd June 2019. With tropical waves, locally heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and gusty winds are generally possible.
Based on the latest model guidance, this wave is not forecast to produce widespread severe weather, nor is it forecast to produce widespread heavy rainfall. Generally, 10-20 millimeters are forecast across Trinidad and Tobago, with isolated areas receiving 30-40 millimeters over the 48 hour period.
Tropical Cyclone Climatology
Tropical Cyclone Points of Origin for May into June (1851-2015). Credit: NWS/NOAA/NHC
While the official start to the Atlantic Hurricane Season isn’t until June 1st, early season tropical cyclones are not unheard of. 51 of the 89 out of season tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin have formed in the month of May, with the most recent being Subtropical Storm Andrea on May 20th, 2019. Thankfully, for Trinidad and Tobago, these early season systems tend to form in the Western Caribbean and Southwestern Atlantic, with no impact to the Eastern Caribbean and T&T.
However, it serves as a reminder that the 2019 Hurricane Season is rapidly approaching and it is important to become prepared for both the hurricane season and the rainy season ahead!