Tropical Weather Update:
— Tropical Wave 02: Dissipated before moving across Trinidad and Tobago on Sunday but gusty winds and some rainfall across both islands.
— Tropical Wave 03: Forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago later this evening into tonight. No significant rainfall forecast.
— Tropical Wave 04: Forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago Friday (7th June) into Saturday (8th June), bringing some showers and thunderstorms Friday night and mainly on Saturday. There is the possibility of heavy rainfall across Trinidad.
— Tropical Wave 05: Forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago on Sunday (June 9th) into Monday (June 10th). Too far out to tell definitive impacts to T&T.
— Invest 91L: No threat to Trinidad, Tobago, and the Eastern Caribbean. As of the latest tropical update, a Special Tropical Weather Outlook was issued for an area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, the western Gulf of Mexico, which has medium chances of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours through 5 days.
Tropical Wave (02)
The second tropical wave of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season dissipated (i.e. lost its characteristics) as it neared Trinidad and Tobago Saturday into Sunday. However, weakening heavy convection East of Trinidad produced straight-line wind gusts across Trinidad near 60 KM/H that downed several trees and in two cases, produced damage to structures. Rainfall-wise, this feature was lackluster across much of Trinidad and Tobago, with the exception of Eastern Trinidad, which based on radar estimates, picked up between 20-40 millimeters of rainfall. Street flooding was reported along the Manzanilla-Mayaro Road on Sunday afternoon. However, across the remainder of Trinidad, trace to 15 millimeters of rainfall was recorded, with generally higher totals further east and south.
A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Generally, because of winds associated with weak tropical waves, showers and thunderstorms tend to follow a west-northwest track, generally missing areas across Southwestern Trinidad and even Northwestern Trinidad – though activity due to local climatic effects such as daytime heating may trigger shower and thunderstorm development across these areas. See the below graphic for a simple explanation.
Three Approaching Tropical Waves (Between the Lesser Antilles and Western Africa)
Tropical Wave 03
This tropical wave is the closest to Trinidad as of 9:00 AM Monday 3rd June 2019. This wave is just under 400 kilometers east of Trinidad, supporting a few showers and the isolated thunderstorm, located in a high moisture environment.
While moisture is readily available, wind shear is not favorable for deep convection (thunderstorms) to persist. However, showers may become locally heavy mainly across Trinidad (i.e. isolated heavy showers) and even fewer developing into an afternoon thunderstorm.
The axis of the wave is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago later today, with showers and the odd thunderstorm possible today. Note a surge of Saharan Dust is forecast, following the passage of this wave.
This wave is not forecast to produce widespread or scattered severe weather, nor is it forecast to produce widespread heavy rainfall. However, locally heavy rainfall is possible in heavy showers and/or thunderstorms, as well as gusty winds. Generally, 10-15 millimeters are forecast across Trinidad and Tobago, with isolated areas (Eastern Trinidad) receiving 25 millimeters over the 24 hour period. There is the concern for street flooding, as well as gusty winds in heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Tropical Wave 04
This tropical wave, as of 9:00 AM Monday 3rd June 2019, located just under 2,900 kilometers east of Trinidad. Scattered moderate convection is occurring where the wave is interacting with the ITCZ.
This wave is fairly weak at this time and is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago on Friday into Saturday, with scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms based on the latest model guidance. However, some models are in disagreement on the total rainfall accumulation across Trinidad and Tobago at this time.
The tropical wave is not forecast to produce widespread severe weather. However, heavy rainfall is possible across much of Central and Eastern Trinidad, particularly in heavy showers and/or thunderstorms. Gusty winds, street/flash flooding also pose a threat. Generally, 20-25 millimeters are forecast across Trinidad and Tobago, with isolated areas (Eastern, Southern Trinidad) receiving 25-40 millimeters over the 24 hour period (2 AM Saturday into 2 AM Sunday).
Tropical Wave 05
This tropical wave, as of 9:00 AM Monday 3rd June 2019, located in the far Eastern Atlantic Ocean. Scattered moderate convection occurring near the wave axis. This wave is fairly weak at this time and is forecast to move across Trinidad early next week. Based on the latest model guidance, we’re looking at Sunday into Monday but this is still 7 days away. Changes in the forward speed of the wave can speed up or slow down the axis of the wave by a day or so.
It is also too early to tell what impacts exactly is forecast for Trinidad and Tobago. Updates will be posted concerning this wave in subsequent tropical updates.
In the 8:00 AM Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center on Monday 3rd June 2019, the NHC is monitoring an area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, Western Gulf of Mexico, for Tropical Cyclone Formation.
Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in association with a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche near 20.5N95W. However, recent satellite wind data show the low does not have a well-defined circulation. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward toward the northeastern coast of Mexico and may become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
In 00Z runs of the top three models for tropical development, the EMCWF, GFS (FV3-GFS & older GFS), as well as the UKMET, all show some support for the formation of a tropical depression or at most a weak tropical storm. The next name on the list of names for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is Barry. The next tropical update for this system will be posted at 2:00 PM by the National Hurricane Center.
This system poses NO threat to the Eastern Caribbean, including Trinidad and Tobago.
Tropical Cyclone Climatology
Tropical Cyclone Points of Origin for the first week of June (1851-2015). Credit: NWS/NOAA/NHC
For the first week of June, we turn our eyes to the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico for the formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, historically. However, tropical cyclones can form in the Atlantic Basin, without regard for the location once conditions support development.