Tropical Update: 2 Tropical Waves East of T&T, To Bring Showers, T-Storms Over Next 4 Days

Tropical Weather Update:
Tropical Wave 04: A weak tropical wave is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago Friday (7th June) into Saturday (8th June), bringing isolated to scattered showers and the medium chance of isolated thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. Models have backed off overall rainfall totals, it not forecast to be a significant rainfall producer.
Tropical Wave 05: A weak tropical wave is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago on Sunday (June 9th) into Monday (June 10th). Similar impacts to TW04 is forecast, scattered showers later on Sunday through Monday, and the medium to high chance of thunderstorm activity,
No Tropical Development forecast elsewhere across the Atlantic basin over the next 5 days.

Tropical Wave (04)

The fourth tropical wave of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago Friday into Saturday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible favoring the late morning on Friday through the early afternoon on Saturday. This wave is moving fairly slowly, at 10 knots, westward. High wind shear and dense Saharan Dust is limiting strong convection. However, there are some scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms seen from 09N-06N between 49W- 53W.

Generally, rainfall is forecast to favor Eastern and extreme Southern Trinidad, as well as Eastern and Southern parts of Tobago. Note that showers are generally forecast to remain light to moderate, with heavier showers favoring the above-mentioned areas, particularly during the late morning through afternoon hours.

This wave is not forecast to produce widespread or scattered severe weather, nor is it forecast to produce widespread heavy rainfall. However, locally heavy rainfall is possible in heavy showers and/or thunderstorms.

Rainfall accumulation is forecast to be between 10-20 millimeters across both islands, with totals between 20-40 millimeters possible across Eastern parts of both islands. Generally, street flooding and/or flash flooding is possible, particularly in areas that experience isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms. In addition, gusty winds are likely in the vicinity of heavy showers and/or thunderstorms.

Tropical waves typically have fair weather ahead of the wave axis, though other features in the area such as surface troughs, increased atmospheric moisture, and local climatic effects, to name a few, may trigger showers and the odd thunderstorm. Following the passage of the wave, much of the active weather typically associated with a tropical wave occurs.
Tropical waves typically have fair weather ahead of the wave axis, though other features in the area such as surface troughs, increased atmospheric moisture, and local climatic effects, to name a few, may trigger showers and the odd thunderstorm. Following the passage of the wave, much of the active weather typically associated with a tropical wave occurs.

A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Generally, because of winds associated with weak tropical waves, showers and thunderstorms tend to follow a west-northwest track, generally missing areas across Southwestern Trinidad and even Northwestern Trinidad – though activity due to local climatic effects such as daytime heating may trigger shower and thunderstorm development across these areas. See the below graphic for a simple explanation.

Tropical Wave 05

North Atlantic Tropical Weather Update Overview with two tropical waves East of Trinidad, with the closest tropical wave just over 800 KM east of Trinidad and Tobago.
North Atlantic Tropical Weather Update Overview with two tropical waves East of Trinidad, with the closest tropical wave just over 800 KM east of Trinidad and Tobago.

This tropical wave, as of 9:00 AM Thursday 6th June 2019, located in the Central Atlantic Ocean. The axis of this tropical wave is located in a dense Saharan Dust plume, with unfavorable wind shear, limiting convective activity. There are some scattered showers seen from 07N-04N between 33W-36W.

This wave is weak at this time and is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago Sunday into Monday. It is moving fairly quickly at 15-20 knots westward. Changes in the forward speed of the wave can speed up or slow down the axis of the wave by a day or so.

This wave is not forecast to produce widespread or scattered severe weather, nor is it forecast to produce widespread heavy rainfall. However, locally heavy rainfall is possible in heavy showers and/or thunderstorms. This “active” weather is forecast to occur Sunday into Monday, with thunderstorm activity likely on Monday.

Rainfall accumulation is forecast to be between 10-20 millimeters across both islands, with totals between 20-40 millimeters possible across Eastern parts of both islands. Generally, street flooding and/or flash flooding is possible, particularly in areas that experience isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms. In addition, gusty winds are likely in the vicinity of heavy showers and/or thunderstorms.

Following the passage of this tropical wave, another surge of Saharan Dust is forecast to move across the Eastern Caribbean.

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

Tropical Cyclone Points of Origin for the first week of June (1851-2015). Credit: NWS/NOAA/NHC

For the first week of June, we turn our eyes to the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico for the formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, historically. However, tropical cyclones can form in the Atlantic Basin, without regard for the location once conditions support development.

There are NO tropical cyclone threats to the Eastern Caribbean, including Trinidad and Tobago at this time.

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