Tropical Storm Vicky remains a weak tropical storm in the far Eastern Atlantic, posing no threat to land.
This is the twenty-first tropical cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the twentieth named storm. It is now the earliest 20th named storm in Atlantic history. The previous record was Vince on October 8th, 2005
This tropical cyclone is not forecast to directly impact Trinidad, Tobago, or the Lesser Antilles.
At 5:00 AM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Vicky
was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 35.7 West. Vicky is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a westward motion is expected to continue through late Thursday. A west-southwestward motion is forecast to begin by Friday and continue through dissipation.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Vicky is expected to become a tropical depression Thursday, weaken to a remnant low on Friday, and dissipate Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 millibars.
Watches & Warnings
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Hazards Affecting Land
No coastal hazards at this time.
This system is of no direct threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.
Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion
There’s been little change in Vicky’s cloud pattern this afternoon. What’s left of the deep convection associated with Vicky is displaced well to the east of the center. Cirrus clouds produced by the outflow of Hurricane Teddy, located nearly 1000 miles to the west-southwest of Vicky, are obscuring the sheared surface circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory in deference to the earlier scatterometer pass and due to the fact that the cloud pattern has remained unchanged.
The UW-CIMSS SAT-Wind/shear products and water vapor imagery reveal an interesting upper wind pattern consisting of an upper low just to the west of Vicky and a narrow upper-tropospheric ridge to the south of the cyclone. These upper-level features are temporarily creating a very diffluent pattern that appears to be offsetting the blistering westerly shear a bit. In any event, Vicky is still forecast to gradually lose strength and degenerate to a remnant low on Friday, which is in best agreement with the global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity aids.
The initial motion estimate is more westward, or 270/08. Vicky should continue moving westward for the next day or two before turning west-southwestward in the low-level tradewind flow. The new NHC track forecast is south of the previous one and is close to the HCCA and TCVA multi-model consensus guidance.
Forecast Discussion by Forecaster Roberts from the NHC.