Tropical Storm Vicky has formed, strengthening from Tropical Depression Twenty-One this morning. Vicky is forecast to remain shortlived as it moves out to sea.
This is the twenty-first tropical cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the twentieth named storm. It is now the earliest 20th named storm in Atlantic history. The previous record was Vince on October 8th, 2005
This tropical cyclone is not forecast to directly impact Trinidad, Tobago, or the Lesser Antilles.
At 11:00 AM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 28.5 West. Vicky is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue into this afternoon. A turn toward the northwest is forecast tonight, with a west-northwestward motion expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday night, and Vicky is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 millibars.
Watches & Warnings
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Hazards Affecting Land
No coastal hazards at this time.
This system is of no direct threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.
Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion
A METOP A/B ASCAT scatterometer pass over the cyclone showed a large swath of winds in the northeast quadrant on the order of 35 to 39 kt. Deep convection in that region of the cyclone continues to increase as well as near the center of circulation. Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt, making this the twentieth named storm of the season. This should be a short-lived tropical cyclone. However, as increasing southwesterly shear is expected to quickly weaken Vicky to a depression in a couple of days, and the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low Thursday. This scenario is based on a combination of the global models and the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity models.
The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 325/05 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move northwestward with some increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours within the low to mid-level steering flow produced by the eastern end of the African monsoon trough. By Tuesday night, Vicky should turn west-northwestward to westward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The official track forecast is close to the various consensus aids and is just to the north of the previous
advisory beyond 36 hours.
Forecast Discussion by Forecaster Roberts from the NHC.