Tropical Storm Teddy To Become A Major Hurricane

Tropical Storm Teddy has strengthened from Tropical Depression Twenty over the last 24 hours in the Central Atlantic Ocean, forecast to become a hurricane as it moves out to sea with minimal threat to the Lesser Antilles.

This is the twentieth tropical cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the earliest 19th named storm in Atlantic history. The previous record for the earliest 19th named storm was Tammy, on October 5th, 2005 while the earliest 19th formed tropical storm occurred on October 4th, 2005.

This tropical cyclone is not forecast to directly impact Trinidad, Tobago, or the Lesser Antilles. However, Teddy is forecast to bring hazardous seas to Trinidad and Tobago beginning on Wednesday through the weekend.

List of names for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The next named tropical cyclone will be called Wilfred. We still have approximately half the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season to go, and with one name left on the list of names for the year, it is highly likely we will begin to use names from the Greek Alphabet for the second time in history.
List of names for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The next named tropical cyclone will be called Wilfred. We still have approximately half the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season to go, and with one name left on the list of names for the year, it is highly likely we will begin to use names from the Greek Alphabet for the second time in history.

At 11:00 AM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 42.8 West. Teddy is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a westward motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slightly slower west-northwestward motion tonight and Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest and a further decrease in forward speed is forecast by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 millibars.

Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Track as of 11:00 AM Monday 12th September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Track as of 11:00 AM Monday 12th September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

Watches & Warnings

Tropical Storm Teddy Watches and Warnings as of 11:00 AM Monday 12th September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Teddy Watches and Warnings as of 11:00 AM Monday 12th September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Hazards Affecting Land

Tropical Storm Teddy probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 11:00 AM Monday 12th September 2020, as well as the most likely time of arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Teddy probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 11:00 AM Monday 12th September 2020, as well as the most likely time of arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. (National Hurricane Center)

SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. By Wednesday, long period swells are forecast to affect Trinidad and Tobago.

This system is of no direct threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.

Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Discussion

Tropical Storm Teddy in the Central Atlantic, well east of the Lesser Antilles. (Weathernerds)
Tropical Storm Teddy in the Central Atlantic, well east of the Lesser Antilles. (Weathernerds)

A timely 1156 UTC ASCAT-A pass was very helpful in locating the center of Teddy, which was farther south and west than previously estimated. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized, with the center located near the northern edge of a curved convective band. Based on the ASCAT data and the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB and SAB, the intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 270/12. Despite the adjustment to the center position, the overall track forecast reasoning has not changed. Teddy will be steered by a deep-layer ridge located over the central Atlantic, which should result in a west-northwestward motion resuming by tonight. The ridge is forecast to shift eastward with time, and Teddy is forecast to turn more northwestward in a couple of days around the western edge of the ridge. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted about a degree to the left of the previous NHC prediction, largely due to the adjustment in the initial position, and lies near the consensus aids and the middle of the guidance envelope.

Teddy will be moving through a favorable environment for intensification for the next several days, with SSTs increasing along the forecast track and shear remaining relatively low. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, showing Teddy becoming a hurricane in 36 hours and reaching major hurricane strength in 4 to 5 days. This forecast is close to IVCN through the first 48 hours and then trends toward the higher HCCA guidance after that time.

Forecast Discussion by Forecaster Brennan from the NHC.

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