Tropical Storm Josephine To Track North of the Leewards

Tropical Storm Josephine (previously Tropical Depression Eleven and INVEST 95L) formed in the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday morning. This tropical storm has now broken the Atlantic’s record for the earliest named 10th storm on record, edging out Jose on August 22nd, 2005.

It is forecast to move just north of the Leeward Islands this weekend as a tropical storm. Based on the forecast track, this would result in minimal impacts to T&T, though its influence on our winds and associated moisture, as well as the ITCZ will bring showers and thunderstorms to T&T beginning after midnight tonight through Sunday.

At 5:00 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Josephine located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 50.6 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 MPH (26 KM/H), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. On the forecast track the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 MPH (75 KM/H) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected through Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 KM) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 millibars.

Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Track as of 5:00 PM AST Thursday 13th August 2020. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Track as of 5:00 PM AST Thursday 13th August 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

Watches & Warnings

Tropical Storm Josephine Watches and Warnings as of 5:00 PM AST Thursday 13th August 2020. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Josephine Watches and Warnings as of 5:00 PM AST Thursday 13th August 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

There are no alerts, watches or warnings in effect from the NHC for coastal areas.

Hazards Affecting Land

Tropical Storm Josephine probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 5:00 PM AST Thursday 13th August 2020, as well as the most likely time of arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Josephine probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 5:00 PM AST Thursday 13th August 2020, as well as the most likely time of arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. (National Hurricane Center)

There are no hazards affecting land at this time.

This system is of no direct threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.

Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion

Tropical Storm Josephine, well east to northeast of T&T and the Windward Islands (Weathernerds)
Tropical Storm Josephine, well east to northeast of T&T and the Windward Islands (Weathernerds)

There has been little change in the organization of Josephine since the last advisory. The low-level center is located near the southern edge of the main convective mass, and there is some weak outer banding in the northern semicircle. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus. Some arc clouds west of the main convective mass suggest that dry air is entraining into the system. However, where this dry air is coming from is not readily apparent in satellite imagery or model
analyses.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 295/14 kt. Josephine should continue this motion for the next 3-4 days as it moves toward a weakness in the western portion of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The global models forecast the western end of the ridge to weaken even more by the end of the forecast period, which should cause the cyclone, or what is left of it by that time, to turn northwestward. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track lies a little to the right of
the previous track trough 48 h and close to the previous track thereafter. On the forecast track, Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has gone by.

Josephine has about 36 h to strengthen before it encounters significant southwesterly shear. The new intensity forecast is unchanged in showing the storm strengthening to a peak intensity of 50 kt in 24-36 h. After that, some minor tweaks were made to the intensity during the expected shear-induced weakening. The new forecast intensity follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance.

Forecast Discussion by Forecaster Beven from the NHC.

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