At 2:00 PM Saturday AST, the National Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories on Tropical Storm Humberto, 65 kilometers north of Great Abaco Island.
The center of Tropical Storm Humberto was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 77.1 West. After several hours meandering, Humberto has begun to move toward the northwest at 11 KM/H, and this general motion with a gradual turn to the north is expected during the next day or so. A sharp turn to the northeast is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto should gradually move away from the northwestern Bahamas today or tonight, and then move well offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 KM/H with higher gusts. Humberto is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday night well east of the east coast of Florida.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 kilometers to the north and east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure just reported by a reconnaissance plane was 1005 millibars.
Watches & Warnings
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island.
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the following islands in the northwestern Bahamas the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Hazards Affecting Land
Wind: Tropical storm conditions are still expected within portions of the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas today. These winds should subside later today or tonight.
Rainfall: Humberto is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Monday:
- The Bahamas – An additional 1 to 3 inches (25-100 mm), isolated storm totals of 6 inches (150 mm).
- Portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts – up to 1 inch (25 mm)
Street and flash flooding are likely.
Storm Surge: This system is not expected to produce significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.
Seas: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect the coasts of Central Florida to South Carolina late this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
This tropical storm is of no threat to the Lesser Antilles, including Trinidad and Tobago.
Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion
The center of Humberto is better defined today, but due to shear, it is still located south of the main area of deep convection. Satellite images indicate that a cyclonically-curved convective band is also developing southeast of the center. Recent reports from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the winds have increased, and the maximum intensity has been adjusted upward to 45 kt. These strong winds are confined to the north and east of the center of the cyclone.
The current unfavorable shear over Humberto is forecast to weaken, and since the cyclone is expected to move over warm waters, the NHC forecast calls for strengthening. Humberto is anticipated to become a hurricane in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic well east of the Florida east coast and well away from the Bahamas. The intensity forecast is consistent with the solutions of the consensus model and the corrected consensus HCCA. In addition, all global models intensify Humberto and show an increase in the size of the storm.
Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Humberto has barely moved during the past few hours. Humberto is being trapped by a ridge to the north, but this feature is forecast to weaken. The expected flow pattern should steer the cyclone very slowly toward the northwest and north during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies, and most likely, Humberto will sharply recurve northeastward away from the United States with no significant increase in forward speed. Only by the end of the forecast period, Humberto should begin to accelerate. The NHC forecast is very consistent with the track guidance which clearly depicts the slow motion of the system and the sharp turn to the right in 2 or 3 days.
- Humberto will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas today. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwestern Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials.
Discussion by National Hurricane Center’s Forecaster Avila