Tropical Storm Gabrielle Strengthening in The Atlantic. No Threat to Land

At 2:00 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 33.8 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 15 KM/H, and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday, with an increase in forward speed expected late in the week.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle became the seventh named storm of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season overnight.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Cone
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Cone

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 KM/H with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 kilometers from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 millibars.

Discussion

There are no watches or warnings in effect.

Gabrielle appears better organized on satellite imagery this morning with the low-level center moving a little more underneath the convection. In addition, a large curved band has become better defined in the northern semicircle. The initial wind speed is increased to 45 kt (85 KM/H), which is consistent with a just-received ASCAT-C pass of 40-45 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 320/8. For the next 5 days, Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break in the Bermuda-Azores high-pressure ridge located between 40W-50W longitude. An increase in forward speed in a few days is expected due to the gradient between an upper-level low to the west and the ridge to the northeast. The official forecast track lies slightly to the east of the previous forecast in the short term and then is very close to the previous NHC track in days 3 to 5.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is expected to remain in a marginal environment during the next 2 to 3 days, with moderate southerly to southwesterly wind shear, low values of mid-level relative humidity and SSTs near 26-27C. No change in wind speed is predicted during the first two days. Thereafter, some strengthening is possible as Gabrielle moves on the northeast side of the upper-level low concurrent with the cyclone moving over warmer water.

This is a typical situation for intensification, so the forecast wind speed is raised slightly at days 4-5. The intensity forecast is fairly consistent with the bulk of the typically reliable intensity models.

Hazards Affecting Land

There are no hazards affecting land.


This tropical storm is of no threat to the Lesser Antilles, including Trinidad and Tobago.

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