At 2:00 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 95.3 West. Fernand is moving toward the west near 11 KM/H, and this motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward the west-northwest is forecast tonight and Wednesday. This motion could bring the center of Fernand near or over the coast of northeastern Mexico late Wednesday.
Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 KM/H with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is forecast before the system moves inland.
An NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Fernand this afternoon to provide more information on the intensity.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 170 Kilometers mainly to the west of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 millibars.
Watches & Warnings
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings could be required later today for portions of these areas.
Hazards Affecting Land
Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area late tonight or early Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Squalls with gusts to tropical-storm-force are likely north of the warning area along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast.
Rainfall: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:
- Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches (150 – 300 mm), isolated 15 inches (375 mm), highest in the Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods.
- South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches (50-100 mm), isolated 6 inches (150 mm).
This tropical storm is of no threat to the Lesser Antilles, including Trinidad and Tobago.