Tropical Storm Fay Makes Landfall Across New Jersey

At 5:00 PM AST, satellite imagery indicated that the center of Tropical Storm Fay has made landfall along the coast of New Jersey about 10 miles (15 km) north-northeast of Atlantic City, near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 74.3 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h).

A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Fay will move near or over portions of the New Jersey coast this evening and then move inland over southeastern New York and western New England tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected tonight, especially after the Fay moves farther inland. Fay is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Saturday morning and dissipate on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center. A Weatherflow site at Larchmont Harbor, New York, recently reported a sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a wind gust of 41 mph (67 km/h). JFK airport in New York City recently reported a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

Fay is now the earliest 6th Atlantic named storm formation on record. The previous earliest 6th named storm formation record in the Atlantic was Franklin on July 22 in 2005. On average, the Atlantic Basin sees the 6th named storm form by September 8th.

Fay is the first named storm to make landfall in New Jersey since Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. Sandy (2012) was officially post-tropical at landfall.

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Cone as of 5:00 PM AST Friday 10th July 2020. Credit: National Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Cone as of 5:00 PM AST Friday 10th July 2020. Credit: National Hurricane Center

Watches & Warnings

Tropical Storm Fay Watches and Warnings as of 5:00 PM AST Friday 10th July 2020. Credit: National Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm Fay Watches and Warnings as of 5:00 PM AST Friday 10th July 2020. Credit: National Hurricane Center

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey, including southern Delaware Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

  • Great Egg Inlet New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Hazards Affecting Land

Tropical Storm Fay as of  5:00 PM Friday 10th July 2020. (Weathernerds)
Tropical Storm Fay as of 5:00 PM Friday 10th July 2020. (Weathernerds)

RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches along and near its track from northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania northeast across New Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New England. This rain could result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible, but widespread river flooding is not expected.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning through tonight.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two are possible late this afternoon and evening across coastal areas of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England.

This system is of no threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion

Fay’s structure is looking less tropical this afternoon. While the central circulation is decidedly warm core, it is lacking deep convection and consists entirely of low to mid-level clouds. The deepest convection is found in cloud bands located well east and southeast of the center. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt, with the strongest winds found in a convective band northeast of the center as seen in velocity data from the KOKX WSR-88D. The last fix from the earlier aircraft mission provided a central pressure estimate of 998 mb.

Gradual weakening should occur from here on as the cyclone begins to interact more with land, however stronger winds are expected to persist over water even after the center moves inland tonight. Fay is shown as a 35-kt tropical storm inland at 12 hours, but those winds are expected to be over water well southeast of the center by that time. On Saturday, Fay should weaken as a post-tropical cyclone and dissipate in 36 to 48 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 010/12 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Fay will be steered generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to affect areas well away from the cyclone’s center.

Key Messages:

  1. Heavy rainfall from northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania northeast across New Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage. While isolated minor flooding is possible, widespread river flooding is not expected.
  2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, including Long Island.

Forecast Discussion by Forecaster Brennan from the NHC.

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