Tropical Storm Epsilon Remains A Large Storm In The North Atlantic

Epsilon has weakened into a tropical storm as it transitions into a large extra-tropical cyclone. It is producing swells that are propagating across the Atlantic Ocean.

Epsilon is the earliest 26th named storm in Atlantic History. The previous record was on November 22nd, 2005. The last (and only) time Epsilon was used in 2005, it formed on November 29th. It is the 10th hurricane and 4th major hurricane for the 2020 hurricane season.

This tropical cyclone is not forecast to directly impact Trinidad, Tobago, or the Lesser Antilles.

List of names for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The next named tropical cyclone will be called Zeta.
List of names for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The next named tropical cyclone will be called Zeta.

At 5:00 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 46.2 North, longitude 44.3 West. Epsilon is moving toward the east-northeast near 46 mph (74 km/h). A fast east-northeastward or northeastward motion is expected through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next several hours, and Epsilon is expected to become a large and powerful extratropical cyclone tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 370 miles (595 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 millibars.

Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Track as of 5:00 PM Sunday 25th October 2020. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Track as of 5:00 PM AST Sunday 25th October 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

Watches & Warnings

Tropical Storm Epsilon Watches and Warnings as of 5:00 PM AST Sunday 25th October 2020. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Epsilon Watches and Warnings as of 5:00 PM AST Sunday 25th October 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Hazards Affecting Land

Tropical Storm Epsilon probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 5:00 PM AST Sunday 25th October 2020, as well as the most likely time of arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Epsilon probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 5:00 PM AST Sunday 25th October 2020, as well as the most likely time of arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. (National Hurricane Center)

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, portions of the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

This system is of no direct threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.

Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion

Tropical Storm Epsilon (Weathernerds.org)

Epsilon is nearly extratropical, with late morning scatterometer data showing that the circulation has become stretched out as the cyclone interacts with a high-latitude low-pressure system and an associated mid- upper-level trough to its north. The main reason that the cyclone is still classifiable as a tropical cyclone is persistent deep convection very near the center of circulation. Based on the scatterometer data showing an area of peak winds of 56 kt, the initial intensity is being lowered to 60 kt.

What remains of the trapped tropical airmass near the center of the cyclone supporting the deep convection should mix out over the next few hours, as Epsilon moves over cold waters of about 15 degrees C and continues to wrap cooler and stable air into its circulation. The post-tropical cyclone will remain large and powerful until it is absorbed by another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic in about 24-36 h.

Epsilon is racing east-northeastward at around 40 kt, embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. A fast east-northeastward or northeastward motion is expected to continue until the system gets absorbed by the aforementioned high-latitude low-pressure system. The latest NHC forecast track is essentially an update of the previous one and remains in the middle of the tightly clustered consensus guidance.

Forecast discussion by NHC Forecaster Latto.

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