Tropical Storm Arthur Is No More, Turns Post Tropical

At 11:00 AM, the National Hurricane Center issued its last advisory on Tropical Storm Arthur, as it turns post-tropical. This marked the 6th year in a row a tropical cyclone has formed before June 1st, the official start of the Hurricane Season.

At 11:00 AM AST, the center of now Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 68.6 West. Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur is moving toward the east near 24 KM/H.

Arthur is expected to gradually turn southward and slow down over the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 MPH (95 KM/H) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast to begin tonight and continue through Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 KM) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 millibars

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Forecast Cone as of 11:00 AM Tuesday 19th May 2020. Credit: National Hurricane Center
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Forecast Cone as of 11:00 AM Tuesday 19th May 2020. Credit: National Hurricane Center

Watches & Warnings

No Watches or Warnings in effect from Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur as of 5:00 PM Sunday 17tth May 2020. Credit: National Hurricane Center
No Watches or Warnings in effect from Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur as of 5:00 PM Sunday 17tth May 2020. Credit: National Hurricane Center

There are no tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect for any coastal areas.

Hazards Affecting Land

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur's Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities. Credit: National Hurricane Center
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur’s Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities. Credit: National Hurricane Center

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are expected to affect portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur is weakening, heading towards Bermuda.

This system is of no threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Forecast Discussion

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur East of the United States. Image: Weathernerds.org
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur East of the United States. Image: Weathernerds.org

Arthur has transitioned into an extratropical low this morning with a warm front extending northeastward from the circulation, any deep convection only along the front, and lots of more stable cumulus clouds near the center. Thus this is the last advisory. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on continuity and model analyses.

The main adjustments to the previous forecast include a quicker dissipation of the post-tropical cyclone, somewhat linked to the models showing a faster weakening after 12 hours, and a continuation of the westward shift in the track forecast in a day or two. These changes are consistent with the latest model consensus for track and similar to a GFS/ECMWF blend for intensity.

Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details.

Forecast Discussion by Forecaster Blake from the NHC.

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