At 11:00 AM Tuesday AST, the National Hurricane Center has begun to issue advisories on Tropical Depression Ten, 1870 kilometers east-southeast of the Leeward Islands.
The center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 44.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 19 KM/H. A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday night or Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 55 KM/H with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by the time it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. Jerry is the next name on the list of tropical cyclone names for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. (1:45 PM Update: Tropical Storm Imelda formed off the Texas coast).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars.
Watches & Warnings
There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. Interests in the Northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
Hazards Affecting Land
There are no hazards affecting land at this time.
This tropical depression is of no threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.
Tropical Depression Ten Discussion
Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the central Atlantic has become more persistent and better organized this morning. Data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 2.0 on the Dvorak scale, therefore advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in line with the satellite estimates. The depression is forecast to move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures within a favorable upper-level environment.
The only negative factor for intensification appears to be some nearby dry air, but with low shear conditions expected, so steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days. The NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a tropical storm later today, and attain hurricane status within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models.
Since the depression is still in the development phase, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the depression generally west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the next few days. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement through 72 hours and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward Islands in about 3 days. By late in the period, the cyclone is expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is increasing spread among the guidance. The global model ensemble means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and UKMET is along the left side. The NHC track lies close the consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest ECMWF.
Discussion by National Hurricane Center’s Forecaster Brown.