Tropical Depression Ten has formed in the Eastern Atlantic, from being designated as Invest 93L over the last day or so. If it were to get named, it would be Josephine. The current record for the earliest Atlantic ‘J’ storm is Jose on August 22, 2005.
At 5:00 PM AST, the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 20.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the west-northwest and west on Saturday and Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass north of the northernmost Cabo Verde Islands tonight and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 MPH (55 KM/H) with higher gusts. The system could become a short-lived tropical storm later tonight. However, weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and the system is expected to become a remnant low Saturday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars.
Watches & Warnings
There are no alerts, watches or warnings in effect from the NHC for coastal areas.
Hazards Affecting Land
There are no hazards affecting land.
This system is of no direct threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.
Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion
Deep convection has recently developed closer to the center of a small area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands. Earlier ASCAT data indicated peak winds of around 25 kt, but given the small size of the system and the likely undersampling of the instrument, the initial intensity is set at 30 kt. This is in line with a Dvorak classification of T2.0 from SAB.
With the recent increase in convective organization, there is a potential for the depression to become a short-lived tropical storm tonight. After that time, the environment is forecast to become increasingly hostile as cooler waters and less favorable thermodynamic conditions lie ahead. As a result, weakening should begin on Saturday and the system is forecast to become a remnant low Saturday night and dissipate shortly thereafter.
The system is moving slightly west of due north, or 355/8 kt. The depression is forecast to turn northwestward tonight, then west-northwestward to westward on Saturday and Saturday night as it moves around the eastern side of a large cyclonic gyre over the far eastern Atlantic. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the TVCA multi-model consensus.
Forecast Discussion by Forecaster Brown from the NHC.