The 2020 Dry Season continues with its forecast below-average rainfall materializing as little to no rainfall has been recorded for April 2020 as of April 17th. However, April is usually the transition month into the Wet Season, which has historically begun in May.
During this transition period, those April showers are finally forecast as a surface to low-level trough will move across Trinidad and Tobago late Monday night through Tuesday. This feature is forecast to bring much welcome rainfall to both islands, though activity will not be prolonged or widespread, with very low chances of thunderstorm activity.
Generally, by nightfall on Monday, increased low-level moisture will support cloudiness and showers across both islands, favoring Eastern areas. This activity will continue into Tuesday with generally light to moderate showers. Gusty winds are possible in heavier showers or in the chance of a thunderstorm.
There are no alerts, watches or warnings in effect for Trinidad and Tobago as of 8:00 PM Friday 17th April 2020.
Note that heavy showers or thunderstorms will be short-lived due to forecast moderate to strong wind shear across the region, between 25-50 knots at times in some areas. This will impact the development of deep convection by tearing away the tops of the convection.
It is also important to note that this feature (surface to low-level trough) is not a tropical wave, nor will it bring the ITCZ across T&T – both of which are triggers for the onset of the 2020 Wet Season.
The Extended Weather Forecast
Saturday: A surface to mid-level high pressure in the Atlantic continues to dominate conditions across the region. However, low-level cloud patches traversing the Atlantic may bring a few brief, isolated showers across the islands, interrupting mostly hot and sunny to partly cloudy skies. Isolated showers are also possible across Western Trinidad and hilly areas due to localized climatic effects. Conditions are forecast to settle by nightfall, with a few brisk, isolated showers mainly after midnight.
Sunday: Similar conditions to Saturday are forecast.
Monday: Similar conditions to Saturday and Sunday are forecast. However, an approaching surface to low-level trough is forecast to begin affecting Trinidad and Tobago during the latter half of the day. Isolated to scattered showers are possible, interrupting partly to mostly cloudy skies. Showers may linger into the night, interrupting partly cloudy skies.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast, with intermittent showers, generally remaining light to moderate. Note that with partly to mostly cloudy skies, periods of sunshine are implied. There is the chance for heavy showers (rainfall rates greater than 7.6 millimeters/hour) or thunderstorms, mainly during the late morning through the afternoon. Conditions are forecast to settle by nightfall, with brisk isolated showers possible. The surface to low-level trough at this point is forecast to be moving through the region.
Wednesday: Similar conditions to Tuesday are forecast, with isolated showers interrupting sunny to partly cloudy skies as the trough system moves through and away from the islands. A high pressure system will rebuild in the trough’s wake, bringing mostly settled conditions by nightfall.
Generally, through the next 7 days, moderate seas are forecast in open waters with waves between 1.5 to 2.0 meters in open waters, occasionally up to 2.5 meters and below 1.0 meter to near calm in sheltered areas.
Two, brief, long-period swell events are forecast to affect Northern coasts of Trinidad and Tobago, though the overall sea state will not be rough.
Winds: Sustained surface winds between 20 KM/H and 40 KM/H with gusts up to 45 KM/H are likely, with gusts up to 55 KM/H possible, with a low to medium chance, accompanying heavier showers across Trinidad and Tobago.
Rainfall: On days where a trough system is affecting T&T, daily rainfall totals are forecast to be between 10-20 millimeters, with isolated totals across Eastern Trinidad up to 40 millimeters.
Why I May Not/Will Not See Constant Rainfall?
A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.
This week, isolated to scattered activity is forecast.