Showers, Gusty Winds & Even A Thunderstorm In The Forecast Over Next 48 Hours

The Sunday afternoon severe weather broke the dry spell across Trinidad and Tobago, with recorded rainfall at Crown Point in Tobago, street flooding across parts of Southern Trinidad and numerous reports of wind damage across Southern Trinidad. More showers and now even the chance of a thunderstorm is in the forecast.

Even with Sunday’s rainfall, at Piarco, none was recorded. This means that the 2020 Dry Season continues with its forecast below-average rainfall materializing as little to no rainfall has been recorded for April 2020 as of April 19th. However, April is usually the transition month into the Wet Season, which has historically begun in May.

During this transition period, those April showers have arrived, with more forecast as a surface to low-level trough will move across Trinidad and Tobago late Monday night through Tuesday, with lingering effects into Wednesday. This feature is forecast to bring much welcome rainfall to both islands, though activity will not be prolonged or widespread, with low chances of thunderstorm activity.

Generally, on Monday, increased low-level moisture will support cloudiness and showers across both islands. This activity will continue into Tuesday with showers of varying intensities. Gusty winds are possible in moderate to heavier showers or in the chance of a thunderstorm.

Risk matrix for the approaching trough system, which is forecast to produce up between 10-20 millimeters and isolated totals of 40 millimeters of rainfall across Trinidad and Tobago.
Risk matrix for the approaching trough system, which is forecast to produce up between 10-20 millimeters and isolated totals of 40 millimeters of rainfall across Trinidad and Tobago.

There are no alerts, watches or warnings in effect for Trinidad and Tobago as of 8:00 PM Sunday 19th April 2020.

Note that heavy showers or thunderstorms will be shorter-lived on Monday, lesser so on Tuesday due to improving wind shear across the region, now forecast at neutral to favorable levels between 0-25 knots. This will impact the development of deep convection by tearing away the tops of the convection.

It is also important to note that this feature (surface to low-level trough) is not a tropical wave, nor will it bring the ITCZ across T&T – both of which are triggers for the onset of the 2020 Wet Season.

The Extended Weather Forecast

5-day weather forecast for Trinidad and Tobago
5-day weather forecast for Trinidad and Tobago

Monday: A partly cloudy day will be interrupted by isolated to scattered showers, during the early morning (before sunrise) and again by the late morning through the afternoon. The approaching surface to low-level trough is forecast to begin affecting Trinidad and Tobago during the latter half of the day. Isolated to scattered showers are possible, interrupting partly to mostly cloudy skies. Showers may linger into the night, interrupting partly cloudy skies. Gusty winds may accompany all showery activity, regardless of intensity.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast, with intermittent showers of varying intensities. Note that with partly to mostly cloudy skies, periods of sunshine are implied. There is an increased chance for heavy showers (rainfall rates greater than 7.6 millimeters/hour) or thunderstorms, mainly during the late morning through the afternoon. Conditions are forecast to settle by nightfall, with isolated showers possible. Gusty winds may accompany all showery activity, regardless of intensity.

Wednesday: Midnight through the early morning, conditions will remain favorable for a resurgence in activity, with the low chance of thunderstorms or heavy showers favoring Trinidad. By daybreak, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are forecast to be interrupted by isolated showers as the trough system moves through and away from the islands. A high-pressure system will rebuild in the trough’s wake, bringing mostly settled conditions by nightfall.

Thursday: A surface to mid-level high pressure in the Atlantic continues to dominate conditions across the region. However, low-level cloud patches and locally developed shallow cloudiness may bring isolated showers across the islands. Isolated showers may favor Western Trinidad and hilly areas due to localized climatic effects. Conditions are forecast to settle by nightfall, with a few brisk, isolated showers mainly after midnight.

Friday: Similar conditions to Thursday are forecast. However, by the late afternoon into Saturday, another shortlived and weak trough is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago, brining another surge in moisture, supporting cloudiness and isolated showers.

Seas Forecast

Generally, through the next 7 days, moderate seas are forecast in open waters with waves between 1.5 to 2.0 meters in open water and below 1.0 meter to near calm in sheltered areas.

One, brief, long-period swell event is forecast to affect Northern coasts of Trinidad and Tobago, though the overall sea state will not be rough.

Sea state forecast through the next 7 days across Trinidad and Tobago
Sea state forecast through the next 7 days across Trinidad and Tobago

Winds: Sustained surface winds between 20 KM/H and 40 KM/H with gusts up to 45 KM/H are likely, with gusts up to 55 KM/H possible, with a medium to high chance, accompanying heavier showers across Trinidad and Tobago.

High Wind Event Precautions
High Wind Event Precautions

Rainfall: On days where a trough system is affecting T&T, daily rainfall totals are forecast to be between 10-20 millimeters, with isolated totals across Trinidad up to 40 millimeters.

There is a low to medium chance of street flooding, particularly in flood-prone areas or areas with poor drainage and a very low chance of flash flooding in areas where heavy rainfall may occur.

Why I May Not/Will Not See Constant Rainfall?

A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.

This week, isolated to scattered activity is forecast.

Forecast - Isolated, Scattered, Widespread - What do they mean?

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