Live Updates – Tropical Wave 19 & The ITCZ

Tropical Wave 19 has moved across T&T, dragging the ITCZ across the islands, with Tropical Wave 20 on the approach. Today is the start of a three-day rainfall event across T&T. Widespread heavy rainfall is possible on Monday, with scattered to widespread showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible. Heavy rainfall may trigger street or flash flooding. Gusty winds up to and in excess of 55 KM/H possible, causing localized wind damages, downed trees, utility poles, and lines, as well as brief power outages. There are no alerts, watches, or warnings in effect from the TTMS. Live updates for Day 1 of this inclement weather event has ended, follow along on Day 2 coverage.

Isolated 24-Hour Rainfall Accumulations In Excess of 50 Millimeters

12:00 AM Monday 6th July 2020

Tropical Wave 19 and the ITCZ produced periodic showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across Trinidad on Sunday.

Generally, parts of North-Central and Northwestern Trinidad accumulated less than 10 millimeters, while parts of Southwestern Trinidad saw less than 15 millimeters. The highest overall accumulations occurred across Central and Northeastern Trinidad, with totals between 15-30 millimeters, and isolated totals up to 50 millimeters. In one case, in Cunupia, a maximum of 52.8 millimeters of rainfall was recorded.

Note that higher rainfall accumulations likely occurred across areas where publicly reporting stations do not exist, such as parts of Eastern and interior Central Trinidad.

24-hour Rainfall Accumulations due to Tropical Wave 19 and the ITCZ
24-hour Rainfall Accumulations due to Tropical Wave 19 and the ITCZ

Tropical Wave 21 Being Monitored For Development

8:00 PM Sunday 5th July 2020

Tropical Wave 20 Forecast To Move Across T&T On Monday

7:30 PM Sunday 5th July 2020

The axis of Tropical Wave 19 has brought the ITCZ across Trinidad this morning, with periodic showers across the island throughout the day and isolated thunderstorms.

As we move into tonight, a resurgence in activity is forecast after midnight, with scattered to widespread showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible across both islands. Activity will also be enhanced by the passage of Tropical Wave 20 on Monday.

Total Precipitable Water Imagery showing the Tropical Waves (analyzed by the National Hurricane Center, Weather Prediction Center, and TTWC) that exist near and east of Trinidad and Tobago.

Additional Showers, Isolated Thunderstorms Developing East of Trinidad

3:20 PM Sunday 5th July 2020

Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to develop east of Trinidad, south of Tobago, moving to the west-northwest.

Heavier activity continues to focus across the southern and eastern halves of Trinidad as the ITCZ affects the islands through the afternoon into the evening. After midnight, showers are forecast to begin affecting Tobago, with isolated thunderstorm activity.

Main Hazards: Locally Heavy Rainfall, Gusty Winds, Street Flooding.

Violent Rainfall Rates Across Parts of Central Trinidad

1:25 PM Sunday 5th July 2020

As a thunderstorm moves across southern, to central Trinidad, violent rainfall rates have been recorded across Freeport, with rates up to 95 millimeters per hour. Rainfall intensity is considered violent when rates exceed 50 millimeters per hour. This intensity of rainfall can trigger street/flash flooding.

Isolated Thunderstorms, Showers Affect Trinidad

1:15 PM Sunday 5th July 2020

An isolated thunderstorm is affecting South-Central Trinidad, gradually moving west-northwest. This activity is due to the ITCZ moving across the islands.

Additional activity is forecast through the afternoon, favoring Trinidad, settling by the evening.

Main Hazards: Gusty Winds, Locally Heavy Rainfall, Street Flooding.

ITCZ To Remain Near & Across T&T Through Tuesday

12:30 PM Sunday 5th July 2020

As forecast, the axis of Tropical Wave 19 brought the ITCZ across T&T. This feature is forecast to linger across the region through Tuesday as two more tropical waves move through the islands.

Heavier Activity to Favor Southern, Eastern Trinidad Throughout the day

11:00 AM Sunday 5th July 2020

Presently, there is abundant moisture across T&T, with favorable upper level divergence, low level convergence and little wind shear, supporting shower and later, thunderstorm activity. As stated in our forecast yesterday:

During the early morning, mostly hot, sunny and somewhat hazy conditions, mainly across the northern half of Trinidad and Tobago. By the mid-morning through the afternoon, moisture associated with Tropical Wave 19 and the ITCZ will move across T&T. After midday, isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to affect Eastern and Southern Trinidad, gradually spreading across the islands through the evening. These conditions are forecast to settle by the late evening, with isolated showers possible. A resurgence of activity is forecast after nightfall, ahead of Tropical Wave 20.

Seas to remain moderate, with waves up to 2.0 meters in open waters. In sheltered areas, less than 1.0 meter. Note that in heavier showers or thunderstorms, seas may become locally choppy or rough. Air quality to improve by mid-Sunday.

The main hazards, mainly during the second half of Sunday, would be locally heavy rainfall, reducing visibility, and localized wind damage from wind gusts associated with heavier showers or thunderstorms. Generally, with heavy showers and thunderstorm activity, street flooding, particularly in flood-prone areas or areas with poor drainage, is possible as well as flash flooding.

Heavy To Violent Showers Affect Parts of Trinidad

10:09 AM Sunday 5th July 2020

Showers began across Trinidad, as forecast, as Tropical Wave 19 moves across the islands, dragging the ITCZ northward. Though most showers have remained moderate to heavy, isolated violent (> 50 mm/hr) rainfall intensities were recorded across parts of Central and Southern Trinidad.

Violent rainfall rates across Longdenville, Central Trinidad Sunday morning as showers associated with the ITCZ and Tropical Wave 19 affects the island.

Three Tropical Waves, the ITCZ to affect T&T Sunday through Tuesday

Saturday 4th July 2020

Three back-to-back Tropical Waves are forecast to keep the ITCZ across T&T beginning Sunday through Tuesday, with the highest chances for rainfall and inclement weather occurring on Monday.

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