ITCZ, Tropical Wave 18 Affect T&T

GOES-EAST GEOCOLOR, IR-13 and Lightning Data showing the ITCZ and Tropical Wave 18 affecting Trinidad (NASA)

A weak tropical wave, Tropical Wave 18, moved across Trinidad and Tobago on Thursday. This wave has interacted with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), enhancing showers and isolated thunderstorms predominantly across Southern and Central Trinidad.

Overnight, the ITCZ is forecast to remain in place across Trinidad, allowing for periods of showers, at times heavy to violent intensities, light to moderate rain and isolated thunderstorms favoring the Southern half of Trinidad.

Across the Northern half of Trinidad and Tobago, isolated showers are possible with gusty winds up to an in excess of 55 KM/H. A low-level jet, a narrow band of fast-moving winds at low-levels of the atmosphere, is present north of Trinidad and Tobago. This feature is forecast not only to agitate seas but bring gusty winds, particularly in areas with stronger thunderstorm activity.

In showers and thunderstorms, stronger winds may mix down to the surface, producing downbursts and areas of wind damage, particularly across Trinidad.

Unsettled weather forecast to continue through Friday morning, with thunderstorms intensifying during the early morning, typical of ITCZ activity. As the day progresses, a high-pressure system will dominate conditions across the region, pushing the ITCZ southward and Tropical Wave 18 moves west, leading to a mostly settled and breezy second half of Friday across both islands.

There are no alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for Trinidad and Tobago as of 7:00 PM Thursday 2nd July 2020.

Seas Forecast

Generally, moderate seas are forecast in open waters with waves between up to 2.5 meters in open waters and near 1.0 meter in sheltered areas. Seas may become locally choppy and/or rough in heavy showers or thunderstorms, mainly along the southern coast.

Winds: Sustained surface winds between 25 KM/H and 40 KM/H with gusts up to 45 KM/H are likely, with gusts up to and in excess of 55 KM/H possible, accompanying heavier showers and thunderstorms across Trinidad and Tobago.

High Wind Event Precautions
High Wind Event Precautions

Rainfall: Over the next 24 hours, generally less than 10 millimeters are forecast with isolated totals across Southern and Eastern Trinidad up to 25-40 millimeters.

Street flooding is likely, particularly in flood-prone areas or areas with poor drainage and flash flooding is possible in areas where heavy rainfall may occur.

Why I May Not/Will Not See Constant Rainfall?

A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.

This week, isolated to scattered activity is forecast.

Forecast - Isolated, Scattered, Widespread - What do they mean?

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