Hurricane Teddy: Tropical Storm Warning For Bermuda, Watches for Nova Scotia

Hurricane Teddy has weakened as it is forecast to move just east of Bermuda tonight into Monday, heading towards Nova Scotia by late Tuesday into Wednesday. Teddy is a large and powerful Category 2 hurricane, posing no direct threat to T&T but it is producing hazardous seas across the Greater Antilles and Leewards.

This is the 20th tropical cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the earliest 19th named storm in Atlantic history. The previous record was Tammy, on October 5th, 2005 while the earliest 19th formed tropical storm occurred on October 4th, 2005.

This tropical cyclone is not forecast to directly impact Trinidad, Tobago, or the Lesser Antilles.

List of names for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The next named tropical cyclone will be called Gamma.

At 5:00 PM AST, the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 63.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, and Teddy is then forecast to continue generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda tonight, and the center should pass east of the island Monday morning. Teddy is forecast to be approaching Nova Scotia late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast, and the system is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 millibars.

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Track as of 5:00 PM AST Sunday 20th September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)
Hurricane Teddy Forecast Track as of 5:00 PM AST Sunday 20th September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

Watches & Warnings

Hurricane Teddy Watches and Warnings as of 5:00 PM AST Sunday 20th September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)
Hurricane Teddy Watches and Warnings as of 5:00 PM AST Sunday 20th September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

  • Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

  • Lower East Pubnico to Canso Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy.

Hazards Affecting Land

Hurricane Teddy probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 5:00 PM AST Sunday 20th September 2020, as well as the most likely time of arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. (National Hurricane Center)
Hurricane Teddy probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 5:00 PM AST Sunday 20th September 2020, as well as the most likely time of arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. (National Hurricane Center)

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda tonight and could continue into Monday night. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.

This system is of no direct threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion

Hurricane Teddy southeast of Bermuda (Weathernerds)
Hurricane Teddy southeast of Bermuda (Weathernerds)

Satellite images show that Teddy is continuing to maintain a central core, albeit eroded on the western side due to shear and dry air. However, the latest microwave data show a more distinct eye than conventional data would indicate, along with an open eyewall. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt, pending Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data this evening.

The hurricane has turned north-northwestward and is likely to turn northward tonight and north-northeastward tomorrow due to an approaching large mid-latitude trough. By early Tuesday, the cyclone should turn back to the north-northwest as it rotates around the same trough, then turn northeastward early Wednesday ahead of yet another trough moving into from eastern Canada. Track model guidance remains in very good agreement, and only a slight westward adjustment was made to the forecast.

The global models are in excellent agreement on Teddy transitioning into a large non-tropical low between Bermuda and Nova Scotia in about 2 days. In many respects, the upcoming trough interaction reminds me of an extratropical transition like Sandy 2012, thankfully happening at a good distance from land, with the GFS/ECMWF models showing pressures into the 940s tomorrow, a slight increase in maximum winds, and a large increase in the size of the tropical-storm-force winds. Beyond Tuesday, the hurricane should become post-tropical near or south of Nova Scotia and be absorbed by a larger extratropical low after day 4 to the northeast of Newfoundland. Little change was made to the official forecast, other than show a small increase tomorrow as the peak extratropical forcing deepens the cyclone. It is still worth noting every model has a rather large and strong post-tropical cyclone near Nova Scotia in 2-3 days, with hazards that will extend a very long way from the center.

Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water.

Forecast Discussion by Forecaster Blake from the NHC.

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