Hurricane Teddy has rapidly strengthened over the last 24 hours in the Central Atlantic Ocean, forecast to become a major hurricane as it moves out to sea with minimal direct threats to the Lesser Antilles.
This is the twentieth tropical cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the earliest 19th named storm in Atlantic history. The previous record for the earliest 19th named storm was Tammy, on October 5th, 2005 while the earliest 19th formed tropical storm occurred on October 4th, 2005.
This tropical cyclone is not forecast to directly impact Trinidad, Tobago, or the Lesser Antilles. However, Teddy is forecast to bring hazardous seas to Trinidad and Tobago beginning on today through the weekend.
Teddy will also influence our wind regime on Thursday through Saturday, causing sweltering heat during the first half of the day, and isolated to scattered intense showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon, favoring Western and Northern halves of Trinidad.
At 5:00 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 50.8 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Teddy is expected become a major hurricane during that time.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 millibars.
Watches & Warnings
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Hazards Affecting Land
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
This system is of no direct threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.
Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion
Recent satellite imagery is suggesting that Teddy is undergoing some westerly vertical wind shear, as indicated by outflow being more limited in the western portion of the circulation. The latest UW-CIMSS shear analysis suggests the magnitude of this shear could be about 10-15 kt, which could help to explain the lack of increase in the organization of the cyclone today. The most recent Dvorak satellite intensity estimates provided CI values of 4.5-5.0, indicating that the initial intensity is still around 85 kt.
The environmental conditions are not forecast to change much for Teddy over the next couple of days. The cyclone is forecast to move over warm waters within a somewhat dry atmospheric environment, while moderate shear is expected to continue due to an upper trough to its northwest. Based on these only somewhat favorable conditions for strengthening, along with what we have witnessed with the lack of intensification today, the NHC intensity forecast over the next few days is being lowered. Beyond day 3, there is evidence to suggest that Teddy may move over some cooler waters due to upwelling caused by Paulette. And, by day 4 global models are forecasting a further increase in vertical wind shear. These two factors should cause the cyclone to weaken late in the forecast period. This updated intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA.
Teddy is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. This motion is forecast to continue for the next few days, as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Late in the forecast period, the portion of the ridge north of Teddy is expected to erode as a mid-latitude trough digs across the northeastern United States. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn north-northwest and possibly north by day 5. The track guidance is tightly clustered through day 3, but increases quite a bit after that time, likely due to how the models are handling the approaching trough.
The latest GFS delays a turn and shows a more westerly track, with the cyclone southwest of Bermuda by day 5, while the rest of the global models turn the system north sooner and take the system just east of Bermuda. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and is near the various multi-model track consensus aids. On the forecast track, Teddy could make a close to approaching to Bermuda in about 5 days. However, based on the model spread at that time frame and average track error of about 200 n mi at 120 h, it is certainly too soon to know what impacts Teddy may have on the
Forecast Discussion by Forecaster Latto from the NHC.