Hurricane Teddy Remains A Powerful Hurricane

Hurricane Teddy became the second major hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season on Thursday at Category Four strength just northeast of the Lesser Antilles. This powerful hurricane poses no direct threat to the region but it is producing hazardous seas across the Eastern Caribbean.

This is the twentieth tropical cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the earliest 19th named storm in Atlantic history. The previous record for the earliest 19th named storm was Tammy, on October 5th, 2005 while the earliest 19th formed tropical storm occurred on October 4th, 2005.

This tropical cyclone is not forecast to directly impact Trinidad, Tobago, or the Lesser Antilles. However, Teddy continues to bring hazardous seas to Trinidad and Tobago through the weekend.

Teddy will also influence our wind regime through Saturday, causing sweltering heat during the first half of the day, and isolated to scattered intense showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon,

List of names for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The next named tropical cyclone will be called Wilfred. We still have approximately half the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season to go, and with one name left on the list of names for the year, it is highly likely we will begin to use names from the Greek Alphabet for the second time in history.
List of names for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The next named tropical cyclone will be called Wilfred. We still have approximately half the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season to go, and with one name left on the list of names for the year, it is highly likely we will begin to use names from the Greek Alphabet for the second time in history.

At 5:00 AM AST, the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 55.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Track as of 5:00 AM AST Friday 18th September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)
Hurricane Teddy Forecast Track as of 5:00 AM AST Friday 18th September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

Watches & Warnings

Hurricane Teddy Watches and Warnings as of 5:00 AM AST Friday 18th September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)
Hurricane Teddy Watches and Warnings as of 5:00 AM AST Friday 18th September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy.

Hazards Affecting Land

Hurricane Teddy probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 5:00 AM AST Friday 18th September 2020, as well as the most likely time of arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. (National Hurricane Center)
Hurricane Teddy probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 5:00 AM AST Friday 18th September 2020, as well as the most likely time of arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. (National Hurricane Center)

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

This system is of no direct threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion

Key Messages for Hurricane Teddy northeast of the Lesser Antilles (National Hurricane Center)
Key Messages for Hurricane Teddy northeast of the Lesser Antilles (National Hurricane Center)

Teddy remains a powerful category 4 hurricane with a well-defined eye and intense eyewall. There have been occasional dry slots that have eroded some of the convection in the eyewall and rain bands, but these seem to be transient. The satellite intensity estimates currently range from 90 kt to 128 kt, and based on a blend of that data, the initial intensity is set at 115 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at 11 kt. Teddy is expected to continue moving northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical high-pressure system. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves closer to the system. However, the trough is expected to cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left early next week and approach Atlantic Canada in 4 to 5 days. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track prediction.

The major hurricane will likely maintain its intensity, or fluctuate in strength, during the next day or so while it remains in generally favorable conditions of low wind shear, warm waters, and a fairly moist air mass. However, the intensity models all show a slow weakening trend after that likely due to Teddy tracking over the cool SST wake left behind from Paulette and an increase in shear by early next week. Teddy is now forecast to transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period based on the global model guidance. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the LGEM dynamical-statistical model.

Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are around 40 feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center.

Forecast Discussion by Forecaster Cangialosi from the NHC.

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