Hurricane Teddy Prompts Tropical Storm Warning For Bermuda

Hurricane Teddy has weakened slightly as it moves northeast of the Leewards on Friday. However, it remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane, posing no direct threat to the region but it is producing hazardous seas across the Lesser and Greater Antilles.

This is the 20th tropical cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the earliest 19th named storm in Atlantic history. The previous record was Tammy, on October 5th, 2005 while the earliest 19th formed tropical storm occurred on October 4th, 2005.

This tropical cyclone is not forecast to directly impact Trinidad, Tobago, or the Lesser Antilles. However, Teddy continues to bring hazardous seas to Trinidad and Tobago through the weekend.

Teddy will also influence our wind regime through Saturday, causing sweltering heat during the first half of the day, and isolated to scattered intense showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon,

List of names for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The next named tropical cyclone will be called Gamma.

At 11:00 PM AST, the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 57.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the day or so, followed by a turn toward the north late this weekend. On the forecast track, Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely through Saturday, with a weakening trend forecast to begin on Sunday.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 millibars.

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Track as of 11:00 PM AST Friday 18th September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

Watches & Warnings

Hurricane Teddy Watches and Warnings as of 11:00 PM AST Friday 18th September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Hazards Affecting Land

Hurricane Teddy probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 11:00 PM AST Friday 18th September 2020, as well as the most likely time of arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. (National Hurricane Center)

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger throughout most of the day Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas, and will spread to Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

This system is of no direct threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion

Key Messages for Hurricane Teddy northeast of the Lesser Antilles (National Hurricane Center)

Teddy continues to have an impressive appearance on satellite images with a fairly symmetrical Central Dense Overcast, although recent images show some warming of the cloud tops over the southeastern part of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over the northern semicircle of the hurricane and not as strong to the south. Earlier microwave images showed a concentric eyewall structure and it appears that the hurricane has re-intensified slightly over the past several hours. The current intensity estimate is set at 115 kt which is a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Some additional fluctuations in strength as a result of eyewall replacements could occur through Saturday. On Sunday and beyond, a less conducive oceanic and atmospheric environment should lead to slow weakening. However, Teddy should remain a powerful hurricane for the next several days. The numerical guidance shows that the circulation will become even larger during the forecast period due to Teddy combined with a high-pressure area coming behind a cold front over the eastern United States. Teddy is expected to make the transition to an extratropical cyclone when it moves into Atlantic Canada.

The hurricane continues its northwestward trek and is moving around 325/11 kt. Teddy should move around the western side of a subtropical high-pressure system for the next day or so. Then, the cyclone should turn northward with an increase in forward speed as it approaches a strong mid-latitude trough cutting off into a low as it moves off the northeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The track of the system could bend a bit the left as it interacts with the trough/low while approaching Nova Scotia. Around the end of the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn northeastward as it moves along the eastern side of a mid-level trough. The official track forecast is close to the corrected model consensus.

Teddy is producing seas to 48 feet and an extensive area of large waves and swells which are impacting much of the western Atlantic basin.

Forecast Discussion by Forecaster Pasch from the NHC.

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