Hurricane Paulette Turns Post-Tropical

After making landfall across Bermuda, Hurricane Paulette has transitioned into a powerful post-tropical cyclone in the far North Atlantic Ocean. As this system has lost its tropical characteristics, the National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on the system.

List of names for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The next named tropical cyclone will be called Wilfred. We still have approximately half the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season to go, and with one name left on the list of names for the year, it is highly likely we will begin to use names from the Greek Alphabet for the second time in history.

At 11:00 AM AST, the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette was located near latitude 43.3 North, longitude 45.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Thursday. Afterward, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn toward the southeast and south late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 millibars.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Track as of 11:00 AM AST Wednesday 16th September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Track as of 11:00 AM AST Wednesday 16th September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

Watches & Warnings

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Watches and Warnings as of 11:00 AM AST Wednesday 16th September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect as the remnants of Hurricane Paulette moves across the North Atlantic.

Hazards Affecting Land

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 11:00 AM AST Wednesday 16th September 2020, as well as the most likely time of arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. (National Hurricane Center)

SURF: Swells generated by the remnants of Hurricane Paulette will continue to affect Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

This system is of no direct threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Discussion

Post Tropical Cyclone Paulette in the far northern Atlantic, with convection moving out of the GOES-16 Satellite View. (Weathernerds)
Post Tropical Cyclone Paulette in the far northern Atlantic, with convection moving out of the GOES-16 Satellite View. (Weathernerds)

Conventional GOES-16 visible and enhanced BD-curve satellite imagery show that Paulette has merged with the large baroclinic zone extending over the north-central Atlantic. Deep convection just to the north of the surface center that was noted on earlier microwave images has dissipated. Therefore, the system is now classified as extratropical cyclone and this is the last NHC advisory. The initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 75 kt based on 1221 UTC scatterometer data, earlier Dvorak intensity estimates and a SATCON analysis of 64 kt.

The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of the global models and is just above the HCCA multi-model consensus. Although not specified in the NHC forecast, there is some chance that Paulette could reacquire tropical or subtropical characteristics later this week or over the weekend when it turns southward back over warmer oceanic temperatures. This possibility will be monitored for inclusion in future Tropical Weather Outlooks, if necessary.

The post-tropical cyclone’s initial motion is east-northeastward, or 060/30 kt. The low is expected to continue quickly in this general motion through Thursday morning within the deep-layer mid-latitude flow. By mid-period, Post-Tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn southeastward to southward as it moves on the west side of mid- to upper-level low to the east of the cyclone. The new track forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.

Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the hurricane are up to 50 feet. Swells from Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette have spread far away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast.

This is the last NHC advisory on Paulette.

Forecast Discussion by Forecaster Roberts from the NHC.

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