Hurricane Pablo – The 6th Atlantic Hurricane of 2019

As of 11:00 AM Sunday AST, the National Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories on, now, Hurricane Pablo, 865 kilometers northeast of the Lajes Air Base in the Azores Islands.

Pablo’s small size allowed it to easily gain deep convection, as well as an eye-like feature for about 4 hours, even while over cooler sea temperatures. Pablo began to intensify more as it passed near the Eastern Azores on the 26th.

The following day, cloud tops around the small eye suddenly cooled and wind speeds increased, leading the NHC to designate Pablo a Category 1 hurricane on October 27 at 15:00 UTC.

Upon doing so, Pablo broke the record for becoming a hurricane this far east, at 18.3°W, breaking Hurricane Vince of 2005‘s record of 18.9°W.

The center of Hurricane Pablo was located near latitude 42.8 North, longitude 18.3 West. Pablo is moving toward the north-northeast near 52 KM/H, and this motion should continue with a decrease in forward speed today. A turn toward the north and northwest and an additional decrease in forward speed are expected tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 KM/H with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin this afternoon, and Pablo is expected to become post-tropical on Monday.

Pablo remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 kilometers from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 130 kilometers. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 millibars.

Hurricane Pablo's Forecast Cone as of 11:00 AM Sunday 27th September 2019. Credit: National Hurricane Center
Hurricane Pablo’s Forecast Cone as of 11:00 AM Sunday 27th October 2019. Credit: National Hurricane Center

Watches & Warnings

Hurricane Pablo’s Watches and Warnings as of 11:00 AM Sunday 27th October 2019. Credit: National Hurricane Center

There are no coastal warnings for Hurricane Pablo in effect.

Hazards Affecting Land

There are no hazards affecting land from Hurricane Pablo at this time.

This hurricane is of no threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.

Hurricane Pablo Discussion

Satellite imagery shows that Pablo has continued to maintain a small eye, and that the eyewall cloud tops have recently cooled. In addition, early morning microwave satellite intensity estimates, as well as the CIMSS satellite consensus, indicate that Pablo has become a hurricane. The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt as a blend between the subjective estimate from TAFB and the higher SATCON estimate, and it is possible this is a little conservative. The intensification has occurred while Pablo is over sea surface temperatures of 19-20C, and it is likely that cold mid- to upper-level air temperatures have allowed the cyclone to maintain deep convection and strengthen over water temperatures where tropical cyclones normally weaken.

The initial motion is now 030/28. The cyclone is expected to turn northward and slow its forward motion as it approaches a frontal system to the north during the next 12-24 hours, and this will be followed by a turn toward the northwest as a large mid-latitude low over the north-central Atlantic becomes the main steering mechanism. The track guidance has again shifted a little to the east, and the new forecast track is also nudged a little to the east of the previous track. Like the previous forecast, it lies close to the various consensus models.

Pablo should encounter even colder water along the forecast track, and global model guidance suggests it should merge with the frontal system between 12-24 h. This combination should cause Pablo to weaken and become an extratropical cyclone. Thereafter, the system should be absorbed by the much larger low to its west between 48-72 hours. (TTWC Note – this larger low to Pablo’s west is the source of our ongoing swell event)

Forecast Discussion by Forecaster Beven from the NHC.

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