Based on our analysis, the threat of severe weather has mostly passed with thunderstorms generally remaining offshore and north of T&T. This is due to the ITCZ drifting well north of T&T and the axis of Tropical Wave 51 now well west of our area, though thunderstorm activity could affect the northern and eastern areas of Trinidad and Tobago through tomorrow. Strong to moderate northwesterly wind shear persists, keeping activity offshore and onshore activity brief.
Another weak tropical wave (Tropical Wave 52) is forecast to move across the region on Tuesday, but model guidance shows a mostly hot and sunny day across T&T, barring the late morning through afternoon shower or thunderstorm, which is normal during the Wet Season. Still, the TTMS has extended the Adverse Weather Alert through Tuesday morning.
Inclement weather is forecast across Trinidad and Tobago beginning Wednesday through Friday due to Tropical Wave 53 and the ITCZ, with a surface to mid-level trough moving across the region. The highest rainfall accumulations are forecast to favor Eastern and Northern halves of Trinidad as well as Tobago, particularly on Thursday and Friday.
The Adverse Weather Alert
The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service has extended again the Adverse Weather Alert Yellow Level on Monday afternoon at 1:49 PM, which went into effect at 6:08 AM Sunday 27th September 2020, and will remain in effect through 8:00 AM Tuesday 29th September 2020.
Trinidad and Tobago is not under any tropical storm watch or warning at this time.
“While cloudy conditions continue to persist over Trinidad and Tobago, the majority of shower and thunderstorm activity is presently concentrated over Tobago and eastern and northern areas of Trinidad. It is likely that some of this activity will envelop other areas as the evening and night progresses. As such, periods of showers, some heavy at times and thunderstorms can be expected intermittently. Gusty winds in excess of 40 km/h and street/flash flooding may accompany heavy showers and thunderstorms.” according to the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service. This “alert” status takes into account the possibility of the event occurring. This adverse weather event is very likely.
The color of the alert indicates the severity of the event and the probability of the event occurring. Currently, the alert level is at Yellow. This means that the hazard is possible to be aware of the impacts of Street/Flash Flooding and Gusty Winds in your area. Areas prone to landslides should also be aware of the hazard and impacts.