9:50AM Special Tropical Weather Outlook: Trough of Low Pressure, Low Chance of Development

At 9:50AM, the US NWS National Hurricane Center issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook concerning a trough of low pressure that extends from South Florida northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles. This trough of low pressure has low chances of tropical development near 10%, over the next 48 hours, and low chances of development over the next 5 days, at 10%.

2-Day Tropical Weather Outlook valid 9:46AM Thursday May 2nd for the trough of low pressure across the Eastern Florida. Image: NWS/NOAA/NHC
2-Day Tropical Weather Outlook valid 9:46AM Thursday May 2nd for the trough of low pressure across the Eastern Florida. Image: NWS/NOAA/NHC

Forecast Discussion

Over the last 24 hours, disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity have been persisting across the Bahamas, continuing to trigger severe weather warnings from the Bahamas Meteorological Services. Strong, gusty winds, dangerous lightning, heavy downpours, hail and the possibility of waterspouts or tornadic activity as well as localized flooding were all possible resulting from these thunderstorms across the Bahamas.

Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system while it moves northwestward, and then northward over the Florida peninsula and near the southeast United States coast during the next day or so. This system is forecast to merge with a frontal system later this weekend according to the National Hurricane Center

The top three global models forecasting tropical development, the UKMET, EMCWF and GFS, in their 0Z runs Thursday morning, have all dropped support for tropical development for this system.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula during the next couple of days.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 10 AM EDT Friday May 3rd 2019, or sooner if conditions warrant by the National Hurricane Center.

This system poses NO threat to the Eastern Caribbean, including Trinidad and Tobago.

May Tropical Cyclone Climatology

Tropical Cyclone Points of Origin for May (1851-2015). Credit: NWS/NOAA/NHC

While the official start to the Atlantic Hurricane Season isn’t until June 1st, early season tropical cyclones are not unheard of. 50 of the 89 out of season tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin have formed in the month of May, with the most recent being Tropical Storm Alberto on May 25th 2018. Thankfully, for Trinidad and Tobago, these early season systems tend to form in the Western Caribbean and Southwestern Atlantic, with no impact to the Eastern Caribbean and T&T.

However, it serves as a reminder than the 2019 Hurricane Season is rapidly approaching and it is important to become prepared for both the hurricane season and the rainy season ahead!

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