9:40 AM Special Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical Disturbance, Low Chance of Development

At 9:40 AM, the US NWS National Hurricane Center issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook concerning a trough of low pressure over Northwestern Florida, and the far western Atlantic. This trough of low pressure has low chances of tropical development near 10%, over the next 48 hours, and low chances of development over the next 5 days, at 10%.

2-Day Tropical Weather Outlook valid 9:42AM Friday 3rd May for the trough of low pressure across the Eastern Florida. Image: NWS/NOAA/NHC
2-Day Tropical Weather Outlook valid 9:42AM Friday May 3rd for the trough of low pressure across the Eastern Florida. Image: NWS/NOAA/NHC

Forecast Discussion

Over the last 24 hours, disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity have been persisting across the Bahamas, continuing to trigger severe weather warnings from the Bahamas Meteorological Services for the fourth day in a row. Strong, gusty winds, dangerous lightning, heavy downpours, hail and the possibility of waterspouts or tornadic activity as well as localized flooding were all possible resulting from these thunderstorms across the Bahamas.

Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system while it moves northwestward along the southeastern United States coast through Saturday. This system is forecast to merge with a frontal system later this weekend off the east coast of the United States according to the National Hurricane Center.

The top three global models forecasting tropical development, the UKMET, EMCWF and GFS, in their 0Z run Friday morning, have all dropped support for tropical development for this system.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the Bahamas and eastern portions of the Florida peninsula and along the southeast United States coast during the next day or so.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 10 AM EDT Saturday, May 4rd 2019, or sooner if conditions warrant by the National Hurricane Center.

This system poses NO threat to the Eastern Caribbean, including Trinidad and Tobago.

Elsewhere Across the Atlantic Basin

According to the Barbados Meteorological Service, the first tropical wave of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is moving across South America and remained well south of Trinidad and Tobago with no impacts to the islands. According to the United States NWS Weather Prediction Center International Desk, their first analyzed tropical wave was analyzed in the Central Atlantic, also forecast to remain well south of Trinidad and Tobago with no impacts to the islands. It is this tropical wave which the increased concentrations of Saharan Dust are following. Note that the National Hurricane Center has not analyzed any tropical waves in their latest surface analysis as of 06Z Friday 3rd May 2019.

No tropical development is forecast elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin over the next 5 days.

May Tropical Cyclone Climatology

Tropical Cyclone Points of Origin for May (1851-2015). Credit: NWS/NOAA/NHC

While the official start to the Atlantic Hurricane Season isn’t until June 1st, early season tropical cyclones are not unheard of. 50 of the 89 out of season tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin have formed in the month of May, with the most recent being Tropical Storm Alberto on May 25th 2018. Thankfully, for Trinidad and Tobago, these early season systems tend to form in the Western Caribbean and Southwestern Atlantic, with no impact to the Eastern Caribbean and T&T.

However, it serves as a reminder that the 2019 Hurricane Season is rapidly approaching and it is important to become prepared for both the hurricane season and the rainy season ahead!

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