Tropical Storm Victor Forms In The Far Eastern Atlantic

From the 52nd tropical wave of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season to move off the African Coast, Tropical Depression Twenty has strengthened into Tropical Storm Victor.

Victor has joined Kirk in 2018 two become one of the two tropical storms that have formed south of 9°N in the satellite era (1966 onwards). Kirk formed at 8.1°N.

By October 1st, Tropical Storm Victor is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane. The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season has already had 7 hurricanes. 7 seasons in the satellite era (1966 onwards) have had 8+ Atlantic hurricanes by 1 October: 1969, 1995, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2017, 2020.

This depression is forecast to move into the North Atlantic Ocean without any direct threats to land. Tropical Storm Victor, is not forecast to affect the Lesser Antilles, including Trinidad and Tobago. There are no alerts, watches, or warnings for T&T from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service at this time.

The Latest From The National Hurricane Center

Tropical Storm Victor's Forecast Track as of 5:00 PM Wednesday 29th September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Victor’s Forecast Track as of 5:00 PM Wednesday 29th September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)

At 5:00 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near 8.3°N, 25.5°W. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 KM/H and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 KM/H with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Victor is expected to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 95 kilometers north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 millibars.

Tropical Storm Victor's latest information as of 5:00 PM Wednesday 28th September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Victor’s latest information as of 5:00 PM Wednesday 28th September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)

Tropical Storm Victor’s Watches & Warnings

Tropical Storm Victor's Watches and Warnings as of 5:00 PM Wednesday 29th September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Victor’s Watches and Warnings as of 5:00 PM Wednesday 29th September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect at this time. As this tropical cyclone gradually strengthens and moves into the North Atlantic, we’ll be monitoring for the possibility of long-period swells.

At this time, there are also no hazards affecting land.

Tropical Storm Victor's probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of  5:00 PM Wednesday 29th September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Victor’s probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 5:00 PM Wednesday 29th September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)

This system is of no direct threat to Trinidad and Tobago.

Tropical Storm Victor’s Forecast Discussion

Tropical Storm Victor (Weathernerds.org)
Tropical Storm Victor (Weathernerds.org)

The cloud pattern continues to exhibit a large circulation with numerous curved bands surrounding the center. The strongest thunderstorms remain on the system’s west side. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have both increased to 2.5/35 kt, and on that basis, the cyclone has been upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm.

Victor is still on a west-northwest course at about 11 kt. There has been little change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone is expected to continue west-northwestward during the next couple of days as it remains steered by the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. By late Friday, however, the models show the western periphery of the ridge being eroded due to a mid- to upper-level low over the subtropical central Atlantic. As a result, the cyclone should turn northwestward by Friday night and then northward late this weekend or early next week. There remains a fair amount of spread in the timing and location of the northward turn with the GFS and HWRF still on the right side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF showing the slowest and westernmost solution. Overall, the consensus models have not changed much and neither has the official track forecast.

The storm is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions for strengthening during the next couple of days. During that time period, Victor is forecast to move over 28-29 deg C waters while embedded within a moist airmass with very low wind shear (less than 10 kt). Rapid intensification sometimes occurs when conditions are this favorable, however, since the storm is broad and does not yet have an inner core, gradual strengthening seems more reasonable. The NHC forecast brings Victor to hurricane intensity in 36 hours. In a few days, however, the models show a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and a notably drier atmosphere. These unfavorable conditions should end the opportunity for strengthening and promote a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains near a blend of the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR consensus models.

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

2021 has already produced 20 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, with the next system being named Wanda for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. For this time of year, most systems form in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, and off of the Eastern United States.

As we head through the last few days of September and into October, we’ll continue to monitor the entire Atlantic closely as tropical cyclones could form from tropical waves, non-tropical low-pressure systems in the North Atlantic, and from the Central America Gyre in the Western Caribbean Sea or the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

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