Rose Transitions Into Post-Tropical Cyclone In The Eastern Atlantic

Tropical Storm Rose is no more in the Atlantic as the system transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone well northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Rose was the 17th named storm of the hyperactive 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season, strengthening from Invest 97L and then Tropical Depression 17th. This tropical storm formed on September 19th and weakened to a depression on September 21st.

With Rose’s formation, 2021 has now joined 2020 and 2005 as the only seasons in the satellite era (1966 onwards) to have had more than named storms by the 19th of September.

This is the first time in history “Rose” has been used. In fact, among the six rotating lists used every six years in the Atlantic since 1979, this year’s list is the only one that has never made it to the “R” storm.

The Latest From The National Hurricane Center

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose's Forecast Track as of 5:00 AM Thursday 23rd September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose’s Forecast Track as of 5:00 AM Thursday 23rd September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)

At 5:00 AM AST, the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 41.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 17 KM/H. A turn to the north is expected by tonight, followed by a northeast or east motion on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 55 KM/H with higher gusts. Rose is expected to dissipate in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 millibars.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose’s latest information as of 5:00 AM Thursday 23rd September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose’s Watches & Warnings

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose's probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 5:00 AM Thursday 22nd September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose’s probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 5:00 AM Thursday 22nd September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect at this time. There are also no hazards affecting land.

This system is of no direct threat to Trinidad and Tobago.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose’s Forecast Discussion

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose (Weathernerds.org)
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose (Weathernerds.org)

After battling dry air and strong wind shear for the last 24 hours, the cyclone has produced organized deep
convection, and therefore, the system no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone.

While the National Hurricane Center has ceased advisories, Rose is still producing winds up to 30 knots based on satellite-derived data. This post-tropical cyclone is forecast to move northward tonight, then northeast to eastward as it moves in the low-level flow ahead of a deep-layer trough.

The National Hurricane Center notes that the remnant low is expected to persist for a couple of days and could produce intermittent bursts of deep convection. However, the same strong wind shear and dry air that effectively killed the system will remain in place, preventing the convection from organizing.

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

2021 has already produced 17 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, with the next system being named Sam for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

As we head through the second half of September and into October, we’ll continue to monitor the entire Atlantic closely as tropical cyclones could form from tropical waves, non-tropical low-pressure systems in the North Atlantic, and from the Central America Gyre in the Western Caribbean Sea or the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

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