Tropical Depression Seventeen Forms In The Far Eastern Atlantic

From the 48th tropical wave of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season to move off the African Coast, Tropical Depression Seventeen is forecast to become Tropical Storm Rose in the next 24 hours.

If Rose forms by the end of today (September 19th), 2021 will join 2020 and 2005 as the only seasons in the satellite era (1966 onwards) to have had more than named storms by the 19th of September.

This depression is forecast to move into the North Atlantic Ocean without any threats to land. Tropical Depression Seventeen, and eventual Tropical Storm Rose, is not forecast to affect the Lesser Antilles, including Trinidad and Tobago. There are no alerts, watches, or warnings for T&T from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service at this time.

The Latest From The National Hurricane Center

Tropical Depression Seventeen's Forecast Track as of 11:00 AM Sunday 19th September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Depression Seventeen’s Forecast Track as of 11:00 AM Sunday 19th September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)

At 11:00 AM AST, the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 28.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 22 KM/H, and this motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward the northwest is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 55 KM/H with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected for the next couple of days, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday. By Tuesday, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development, and the system is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars.

Tropical Depression Seventeen's latest information as of 11:00 AM Sunday 19th September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Depression Seventeen’s latest information as of 11:00 AM Sunday 19th September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)

Tropical Depression Seventeen’s Watches & Warnings

Tropical Depression Seventeen's Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings as of 11:00 AM Sunday 19th September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Depression Seventeen’s Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings as of 11:00 AM Sunday 19th September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect at this time. As this tropical cyclone gradually strengthens and moves into the North Atlantic, we’ll be monitoring for the possibility of long-period swells.

At this time, there are also no hazards affecting land.

Tropical Depression Seventeen's probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 11:00 AM Sunday 19th September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Depression Seventeen’s probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 11:00 AM Sunday 19th September 2021. (National Hurricane Center)

This system is of no direct threat to Trinidad and Tobago.

Tropical Depression Seventeen’s Forecast Discussion

Tropical Depression Seventeen (Weathernerds.org)
Tropical Depression Seventeen (Weathernerds.org)

Overnight, a burst of strong convection (heavy rainfall and thunderstorms) occurred over the low-level center of the then tropical disturbance, prompting the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Invest 97L to Tropical Depression Seventeen at 5:00 AM.

Since then, pulsing convection has occurred over the center of circulation with the approximate intensity at 30 knots (55 KM/H) sustained winds.

This tropical cyclone is forecast to move northwest over the next several days as it moves along the western/southwestern periphery of the Atlantic’s subtropical ridge, extending from Africa into the Cabo Verde Islands. Models remain tightly clustered, taking this system into the North Atlantic Ocean with no threat to land.

Tropical Depression Seventeen remains in an environment conducive for strengthening with light to no wind shear through the next 36 hours, ample moisture at low and mid-levels of the atmosphere, and sea surface temperatures near 27 degrees Celsius. The National Hurricane Centre calls for strengthening into a tropical storm during this period but with increasing wind shear from the southwest by Tuesday, slow weakening is expected.

But this model shows…

Individual model runs are just one possible outcome from a myriad of outcomes. Weather does not always follow what is modeled, and even what may be forecast. Beware of individual model runs being posted on social media.

Always check the National Hurricane Center for the latest information for tropical cyclones and your local meteorological offices for country-specific advisories.

What should I do?

This system is not forecast to affect the Lesser Antilles. Don’t panic. There are no immediate or direct tropical storm threats heading to T&T, so feel free to ignore the “storm coming” chain messages that pass through WhatsApp every hurricane season.

If you are a risk-averse person, now is a good time to check your inclement weather, flood, or hurricane season plan, ensuring your preparedness supplies are not expired, stocked, and in a safe location.

The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management has compiled a comprehensive guide for preparing for the Wet and Hurricane Season.

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

2021 has already produced 17 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, with the next system being named Rose for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. For this time of year, most systems form in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, and off of the Eastern United States.

As we head through the second half of September and into October, we’ll continue to monitor the entire Atlantic closely as tropical cyclones could form from tropical waves, non-tropical low-pressure systems in the North Atlantic, and from the Central America Gyre in the Western Caribbean Sea or the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

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